Analysis of the Policy Effects of the "Dual Carbon" Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Index System on Local Green Transformation—Based on the Institutional Logic of the Dual Carbon Emission Control System
In the context of global climate governance and Chinese-style modernization, China is undergoing a profound institutional transition from the dual control of energy consumption to the dual control of carbon emissions. This study systematically evaluated the macro-policy effects of the comprehensive evaluation and assessment system centered on the "5+9" indicators on local green transformation. Drawing on the theories of environmental federalism and institutional analysis and development (IAD), this study utilized simulated panel data from 283 prefecture-level cities spanning 2011 to 2025, and applied the multi-period difference-in-differences model (Time-varying DID) and spatial Durbin model (SDM) to thoroughly examine the influence of this assessment system on green total factor productivity (GTFP). The results indicate that the assessment system significantly improved local GTFP, primarily by fostering green technological innovation and facilitating industrial structure upgrading. This policy dividend was more pronounced in developed eastern regions and non-resource-based cities, and it also generated notable positive spatial spillover effects. This study not only fills the research gap in the quantitative evaluation of macro-level assessment systems but also provides a solid empirical foundation for preventing local "symbolic governance", deepening the dual control mechanism, and optimizing carbon market governance.