Author

Xu-Hua Qiu

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Open access Sep 2026

Forecasting Systemic Reconfiguration in Concentrated Global Supply Networks for Economic Resilience: A Systems-Theoretic Hypergraph-Structured Temporal Decision-Support Framework

Three system-level regularities carry beyond the model: the arrival of a new origin is a weak proxy for diversification, critical dependency is close to absorbing for specified intermediate inputs but not for final goods, and the 2020–2021 contraction rearranged source sets without widening them—so resilience monitorin...

Ju-Qun Tian, Jun-Ru Si, Xu-Hua Qiu et al. · Systems · 0 citations

Open access Aug 2026

Finite-Sample Conformal Risk Bounds for Joint Value-at-Risk and Expected-Shortfall Forecasting Under Non-Exchangeable Financial Time Series

Financial tail-risk observations are non-exchangeable: serial dependence and regime shifts make their joint law depend on the time ordering, invalidating the exchangeability that standard conformal guarantees assume, and expected shortfall is not elicitable on its own, so a forecaster cannot be calibrated to it as a qu...

Yuxin Ye, Xu-Hua Qiu, Kun-Jie Zhu et al. · Mathematics · 0 citations