Interpretable Machine Learning for Flexural Strength Prediction of 3D-Printed Concrete Incorporating Supplementary Cementitious Materials
Flexural strength (FS) governs the structural performance of 3D-printed concrete (3DPC) under bending loads yet remains difficult to predict owing to the coupled influence of binder composition, supplementary cementitious materials, water-to-binder ratio, and fiber reinforcement geometry on interlayer fracture behavior. Much of this compositional diversity stems from supplementary cementitious materials, industrial by-products whose reuse as partial cement replacement lowers the embodied carbon of printable mixes. A machine learning framework was trained on 209 FS records covering OPC- and SAC-based systems (FS: 3.65–45.0 MPa; W/B: 0.15–0.65). Six composite features were constructed from physical principles, two of them specific to bending: Fiber_Pullout_Index encoding post-crack pullout energy and Binder_Efficiency capturing cement quality per unit water content at the fiber–matrix interface; Lasso regularization with the one-standard-error rule reduced the 19-variable space to 14 active predictors. Twenty regression algorithms spanning eight families were benchmarked under 30 independent partitions; the Friedman test rejected equal performance (χ2=337.02, p=4.88×10−60) and all 19 pairwise Wilcoxon comparisons against CatBoost were Holm-significant. CatBoost ranked first (mean rank of 18.17/20; 30-run R2=0.9302±0.0722; seed-42 partition: R2=0.9557; RMSE = 1.761 MPa; MAPE = 11.20%). n(W/B) emerged as the primary driver across SHAP, ALE and LIME, with a monotonic ALE profile spanning 8.99 MPa and no inflection over the full printable window; Binder_Efficiency ranked second (PDP range: 5.21 MPa), isolating cement grade and paste dilution as independent strength levers. Cross-conformal prediction provided finite-sample coverage guarantees without distributional assumptions (empirical coverage: 95.24%; conformity quantile: 3.83 MPa); bootstrap analysis put the epistemic component at a mean predictive SD of 0.946 MPa, a quarter of that quantile. External validation yielded R2=0.769 (Pearson R=0.923, RMSE = 1.91 MPa), with 19 of 20 predictions (95.0%) within Bland–Altman 95% limits of agreement, confirming transfer to a source study withheld from model training. A graphical user interface packaging the 14-feature CatBoost pipeline supports mix design queries without programming.