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Yuan-Lai Lu

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#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

The Corroboration Illusion: When More News Makes LLM Forecasts Less True

This work formalizes news-corpus poisoning of probabilistic forecasters, a threat model distinct from prior RAG poisoning, which targets factual answers or opinion polarity rather than calibrated probabilities.

Yuan-Lai Lu, Yu-Kuan Zhang · 0 citations