Incremental Predictive Information of Macroeconomic Variables for CSI 300 Volatility: Evidence from GARCH-MIDAS Models
Based on daily returns of the CSI 300 index and monthly macroeconomic variables from January 2005 to December 2025, this paper examines whether low-frequency macroeconomic information provides incremental value for stock market volatility forecasting. A GARCH-MIDAS model is employed to decompose daily return volatility...