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This work audits five LLM overseers on 19 compliance tasks, varying only trace detail and evidence labeling, finding that elaborate traces shift the decision criterion toward rejection, increasing false alarms in susceptible overseers.
A deep learning framework that extracts cross-product relationships and demand information from clickstream data for probabilistic sales forecasting that outperforms state-of-the-art benchmark models by 10-28% in forecast accuracy and yields superior probabilistic forecasts with substantially lower quantile loss and im...
Online communities often treat large support margins in public elections as strong mandates. We argue that such margins can overstate the independent scrutiny behind a decision. Using 198,275 free-text rationales from Wikipedia admin elections, we introduce vote-text divergence, a measure that flags a decisive vote pai...
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