Repeated-sampling evaluations increasingly extrapolate pass@k far beyond the number n of samples collected per problem. We show that, in the pooled/random-task conditional-Binomial model, fixed-n success counts identify only the n free moments of the latent per-task success distribution. Consequently, direct pass@k is identified for k<= n, but generic extrapolated pass@k, tail exponents, and tail constants are not identified for k>n, even with arbitrarily many exchangeable tasks at the same rollout budget. This is stronger than the observation that the usual estimator is undefined beyond n: it characterizes the information missing from the fixed-depth count-law experiment. We give exact count-law-preserving constructions with incompatible extrapolations, state the exceptional unique-extension case, and compute sharp population identified intervals through Hausdorff principal representations. On the public 10,000-rollout-per-problem release of Brown et al., counterfactual n = 16 evaluations leave failure at k = 1000 ambiguous by factors from 1.5 to over 2,600 across four MATH/GSM8K/CodeContests configurations. The calibration shows that intermediate-scale failure share alone does not determine width. Our result does not reject parametric inference-time scaling laws; it supplies the nonparametric baseline against which their assumptions can be evaluated. We give an exact, conservative one-coordinate finite-task confidence certificate and a reporting standard separating direct estimates, identified sets, and model-conditioned forecasts.
The edge-of-chaos condition preserves first-order input perturbations in wide randomly initialized networks, but physics-informed losses, score matching and derivative regularization depend on higher input derivatives. For smooth scalar-input fully connected networks, using a joint Gaussianity of the finite derivative jet that holds in the infinite-width limit at each fixed depth, we derive mean-field recursions through third order that are exact at the variance fixed point, with finite-depth corrections that decay geometrically. At criticality, the first-derivative variance is depth-invariant, whereas the second-derivative variance grows linearly whenever the activation has nonzero curvature. The resulting third-order system closes on mean-field susceptibilities. For residual networks with branch scale L^{-1/2}, we prove that every fixed finite derivative order has uniformly bounded variance under explicit regularity assumptions. Simulations verify the critical growth laws, the residual bound, and the closed recursion. The results concern initialization, not trained-network performance.
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) grounds a language model in retrieved documents, which reduces hallucination but creates a new attack surface: if retrieved text is tampered with, the model may repeat the falsehood. We study how much a small quantized model, Llama 3.1 8B, degrades when a fraction of its retrieved context is poisoned. Three corruption strategies are tested, entity swap, number swap, and negation, each applied to zero, one, two, or three of the three retrieved passages, over a factorial sweep of 588 runs on a fact-checking task built from FEVER. Accuracy falls from 77.9% on clean context to 43.5% when all three passages are corrupted. Entity swap flips the largest share of answers that were correct on clean context. Number-based corruption stays flat while poisoned passages are a minority and jumps once they form a majority, a pattern we re-check with query-level bootstrap intervals. The model rarely invents new falsehoods; its dominant reaction is to abstain, and a lexical overlap proxy of unsupported generation falls under attack rather than rising. The study is a small-scale measurement with coarse automated labels; we treat the strategy contrasts as suggestive until decoding is controlled and stronger adjudication is in place.
Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate natural-language comments while writing code, and these comments become part of the context used to generate the code that follows. However, it remains unclear which properties of comments affect code-generation performance. We study this question through observational analyses and controlled interventions. On LiveCodeBench, neither comment frequency nor broad comment intent reliably predicts pass@1. We then prefill weaker recipient models with comment blocks written by stronger source models, allowing us to separate comment surface form from the solution content they convey. Comments from source solutions that pass the tests raise recipient pass@1 by 17.2% on average. In contrast, comments describing failed solutions provide no reliable gain, while comments written for a different problem reduce pass@1 by 20.8%. Finally, across a wide range of models and prompt variants, most recipient models show no significant recovery of the external-comment gain, and the best case recovers only 24%. These results show that comments help code generation not merely because they are comments, but because they can provide correct solution content that prompting cannot reliably elicit.
Da Pan, Zhensu Sun, Cenyuan Zhang et al.· 0 citations
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Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a powerful paradigm for scaling model capacity while preserving efficient inference in large foundation models. However, most MoE models use a fixed top-$k$ expert selection policy, assigning the same expert budget to every token even when fewer experts may be sufficient. Inference-time dynamic top-$k$ routing can reduce computation without retraining, but existing methods often overlook the distributional shift caused by deviating from the training-time routing configuration. We show that reducing the number of activated experts consistently increases the RMS scale and variance of SMoE outputs, inducing a representation mismatch that contributes to downstream performance degradation in addition to the loss of expert capacity. To address this correctable component, we propose Layer-wise Distribution Alignment (LDA), a lightweight inference-time correction that uses layer-wise calibration statistics to align reduced-routing representations with the default configuration. Across multiple SMoE LLMs, benchmarks, and routing strategies, LDA recovers much of the performance lost induced by the distributional shift under reduced routing while preserving sparse-inference efficiency with negligible overhead.
Dohyeon Kim, Bedionita Soro, Sung Ju Hwang· 0 citations
Ultra-low-bit language models promise reductions in storage and memory traffic, but a nominal"1.58-bit"label does not specify the deployed representation or its execution cost. We study a scale-up of an aggressive post-training conversion pipeline from Qwen3-4B to Qwen3-8B. The conversion uses KOTMS rotation, E2M-ATQ adaptive ternarisation, and GPTQ-style error compensation in a weight-only A16 configuration. We do not claim these algorithms as new. Our contribution is the end-to-end scale-up characterisation: an external reproduction gate, matched 4B/8B capability analysis, cross-corpus perplexity, effective-bit accounting, lossless lattice-aware packing, and direct packed execution. The 8B model reaches a three-corpus perplexity ratio of 1.361x, with WikiText-2, C4, and PTB ratios of 1.318x, 1.393x, and 1.371x. On eight zero-shot tasks at n = 500, mean accuracy is 64.6% versus 72.4% for FP16, corresponding to 78.5% chance-corrected retention and a 7.8-point absolute cost. The matched 4B run retains 69.6%, yielding an 8.9-point 8B advantage. The packed checkpoint is 8.24 GiB and preserves the recorded perplexity to measurement precision. Direct packed execution reaches 15.52 tokens/s in 7.35 GiB, while a preliminary packed GEMV remains slower than FP16 cuBLAS. The result is a validated scale-up baseline: model size improves robustness to aggressive post-training discretisation, actual serialisation is solved for the measured artefact, and direct execution is feasible, while broader seeds, calibration distributions, and kernel optimisation remain open.
Additional inference compute can increase the number of correctly resolved security-assurance tasks, but repeated success, unique coverage, accepted evidence, and operational protection are different quantities. We develop a resource-constrained framework that separates them. For repeated conditionally independent attempts with latent success probability $\Theta$, coverage is $C_n = 1 - E[(1-\Theta)^n]$, and its limiting value is $1 - P(\Theta = 0)$. Positive pairwise outcome correlation does not by itself imply a ceiling below one: we construct two models with the same mean success and pairwise correlation but different limiting coverage. We distinguish this result from the effective sample size used to estimate a mean, and show why finite-budget observations cannot generally identify an asymptotic support ceiling. We then connect coverage to fallible evidence checking, proper scoring of factual grounding, complete resource accounting, service capacity, and a response model that includes mitigation delay. A conceptual defensive architecture separates evidence analysis, adjudication, and operational authority. An evaluation protocol specifies held-out tasks, paired comparisons, negative cases, and uncertainty reporting. The contribution is a consistent theoretical synthesis and a set of counterexamples to invalid extrapolations, rather than an empirical scaling law. All numerical illustrations are analytic; no model-parity result, hardware benchmark, or general attacker-defender equilibrium is claimed.
AI research agents combine prior knowledge, public sources, and experimental feedback to produce useful results. The Discovery Certification Protocol (DCP) turns claims about these results into executable recovery and feedback tests. Gate 1 validates useful improvement on sealed evaluation. Gate 2 gives matched agents the registered starting information and observed Web content while withholding the target research history. Every valid method reaching the numerical target supplies a recovery witness and triggers the Core veto. DCP Core requires adequate controls, zero observed recoveries, and a finite-sample bound on recovery in one fresh registered episode. Optional Gate 3 measures the average effect of truthful feedback relative to a specified neutral policy from a shared checkpoint. DCP Evidence adds this effect after independent null calibration and a registered effect margin. Two controlled audits exercise the complete protocol in SQLite optimization and virtual catalyst control under different models. Each produced zero recoveries in 96 episodes, with an upper bound of 0.0468. Each paired study yielded 30 truthful recoveries and zero neutral recoveries, with passing 60-pair null studies. Additional cases exercise Core, recovered, and audit-incomplete decisions. A deterministic, LLM-free verifier reproduces the decisions from frozen evidence. DCP provides a common evidence language for useful outcomes, alternative routes, and feedback effects across AI research.
Jingjie Ning, Shanshan Zhong, Xiaochuan Li et al.· 0 citations
We study how physical-state inputs affect a 0.8B hybrid language model adapted for manipulation with 6.2M trainable parameters. Six conditions are trained on three LIBERO-Spatial tasks and evaluated over three seeds and 540 held-out rollouts. Conditioning recurrent decay gates on geometric increments yields 28.9% success, compared with 36.7% when those increments are shuffled during training and 24.4% without explicit object/goal geometry. Both geometry policies receive correct inputs at evaluation. A token adapter using the same increments scores 27.8%; differences vary across seeds and remain inconclusive. Token-clock conditioning scores 11.1%, including one seed that fails to converge. In separate robustness tests, a state-only relative-coordinate policy retains 7/10 success under frame relabeling, whereas all four tested visual policies fall to at most 3/20 after a 5 cm object displacement. These results show no reliable advantage from training-time geometric alignment under this recipe and illustrate the gap between coordinate invariance and physical-layout generalization. Episode records, seed-level analyses, and figure-generation code accompany the paper.
This paper presents an end-to-end evaluation framework for image-triggered command injection against computer-use agents (CUAs). The goal is to test whether a local visual patch can induce verifiable environmental consequences along the full chain of screenshot input, VLM generation, action parsing, and environment execution. We train and deploy patches on author-controlled GitHub Pages pages and a locally deployed CSDN clone, and evaluate them in real environments across five open-source or publicly available GUI-agent or vision-language-model (VLM) backends. Our experiment aggregates 600 instance-level online cases, with T-ASR, TAPR, and E2E-ASR reaching 84.5%, 47.0%, and 20.3%, respectively. Trajectory analysis further shows that in some successful cases the agent first executes a malicious terminal command and then continues the original benign task. These results indicate that optimized local visual signals can affect not only VLM outputs but also propagate through the execution pipeline of open CUAs and create real environmental risk.
Zhihao Liu, Hongyu Sun, Zhiyuan Fu et al.· 0 citations
High classification accuracy alone is insufficient for clinical image analysis, where calibrated confidence and reliable uncertainty estimates are essential. This study proposes a reliability-aware Hybrid-K ensemble selection framework for multiclass cervical cytology classification using the SIPaKMeD dataset. Nine deep learning architectures were evaluated using a fixed stratified five-fold partition and three training seeds. After post-hoc temperature scaling, models were assessed using macro-F1, accuracy, AUROC, expected calibration error (ECE), worst-class ECE (WC-ECE), area under the risk-coverage curve (AURC), Brier score, and negative log-likelihood (NLL). Models were ranked using an equal-weight composite score, and Hybrid-K ensembles were formed from the top-ranked models using soft voting. Robustness was examined using 5,000 Dirichlet-sampled metric-weight vectors, leave-one-metric-out analysis, and corrected paired testing across 15 fold-by-seed evaluations. The final Hybrid-2 ensemble, comprising Swin-Tiny and TinyViT-5M, reduced AURC by 43%, NLL by 17%, and WC-ECE by 36% relative to the best individual model. It was selected in 96.8% of random weighting scenarios, remained unchanged across all leave-one-metric-out analyses, and improved the full composite score. However, per-metric gains were not statistically significant after Holm-Bonferroni correction (all adjusted p >= 0.168). Because post-hoc calibration did not use a fully independent calibration set, calibration-dependent results should be interpreted as exploratory internal estimates. Overall, the framework identified a compact ensemble robust to alternative metric weightings and improved reliability point estimates under internal validation on a single dataset.
Advertising video generation is not only a video synthesis task, but also a product-conditioned reasoning problem whose success is measured by online business metrics. Recent video foundation models can generate realistic clips from multimodal conditions, yet they do not optimize how a product should be transformed into an effective advertisement or how future generation should be improved from online business feedback. To close this loop, we propose AgenticGen, a reward-guided agentic framework that decomposes advertising video generation into two trainable reasoning stages, strategy selection and draft generation, thereby exposing optimization targets that online business feedback can supervise. AgenticGen learns a performance-based reward from accumulated online feedback and a complementary rubric-based reward aligned with human quality standards, then uses them to supervise policy optimization. DPO first moves the agentic policies toward online preferences, and GRPO further refines both stages with process and outcome rewards. Offline experiments validate the reward models and successive policy optimization. Online A/B experiments in the TikTok advertising system show that AgenticGen after DPO and GRPO improves CTR by 2.72%, CVR by 2.63%, and Advv by 9.61% over the SFT baseline.
Xingyuan Bu, Chengru Song, Hao Zhou et al.· 0 citations
Professor Sherry Turkle’s new book, “Artificial Intimacy,” offers a withering critique of chatbots and the antisocial dynamics she believes they encourage.
