Recent advances in deep learning for time series prediction have amplified the need for reliable uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction has gained attention as a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction intervals with coverage guarantees. However, its coverage guarantees rely on data exchangeab...
This study considers the problem of portfolio choice, where we recommend a portfolio to an investor to maximize the expected utility of their wealth. Our goal is to construct an asymptotically optimal portfolio choice rule in terms of expected utility regret, the difference between the expected utility of an oracle inv...
The dynamics of cells, organisms, and fluids are often modeled as probability distributions evolving over time. Reconstructing and extrapolating this evolution from unpaired snapshots requires assumptions about the underlying process. Wasserstein gradient flows are a common choice, but they cannot describe conservative...
F. Sergeev, Markus Heinonen, Daniel Waxman et al.· 1 citation
On MNIST and on ImageNet with ResNet-50, ResNet-101 and ViT-S/16, the horizon loss improves top-1 accuracy over cross-entropy at a flat learning rate, and the gain grows with label noise.
Ian Osband· 0 citations
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Stationarity rewards memory, but after a change the same history can mislead. We ask when forgetting should be permitted. E-process-authorized Thompson sampling (e-ATS) gives each arm full-history and discounted Beta states. An anytime-valid e-process first authorizes the discounted state, then a reversible relevance s...
Neural network loss landscapes have many symmetries, which are preserved by gradient flow but broken by finite-stepsize stochastic gradient descent (SGD). A canonical example of such a symmetry is scale in homogeneous networks: one can scale up the parameters in one layer and down in the next without changing the netwo...
Farhad Pashakhanloo, Jacob A. Zavatone-Veth· arXiv.org· 0 citations
Deep tabular generative models are benchmarked on datasets with tens of thousands of rows; clinical datasets have hundreds. We preregistered and ran a size-ladder benchmark to find where the two regimes diverge: 8 public datasets subsampled from 200 to 20,000 training rows, seven generators (independent marginals, Gaus...
The Muon optimizer applies spectral orthogonalization to matrix-valued updates and has shown strong performance in large-scale neural network training, yet the mechanisms of this transformation in feature learning remain poorly understood. In this work, we investigate this question through a tractable factual-recall mo...
Xu-Heng Li, Qi-Wei Di, Yuan Cao et al.· 0 citations
Objective perturbation adds a random linear term to a regularized empirical risk and releases the exact perturbed minimizer. We study the finite computation obtained by releasing the $N$-th iterate of deterministic gradient descent on $w\mapsto F(w;S)+\langle z,w\rangle$, where $z\sim\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2I_d)$ is drawn...
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) supports scheduling, bidding, and risk management in electricity markets, yet existing benchmarks focus mainly on numerical inputs, leaving the forecasting value of forecast-time textual context insufficiently evaluated. We introduce TRACE, a reproducible benchmark of 7,300 zone--day...
It has recently been shown that nearest-neighbour retrieval provides a strong baseline for molecular fingerprint prediction from MS/MS spectra, with several variants matching or outperforming current deep learning models (Khoo and Barzilay, 2026; Liu et al., 2026; Gupta et al., 2026). Importantly, "nearest neighbour" e...
Fast prediction of the response of adhesive soft viscoelastic contacts represents a current challenge in soft robotics and for gripping and manipulation tasks. Determining the complete time-resolved force trajectory requires full numerical simulations, whose computational cost is strongly parameter-dependent, making th...
Ali Maghami, Merten Stender, Michele Ciavarella et al.· 0 citations
A machine-learning approach called CheMeleon provides a practical way to develop new drugs or other molecules with much less detailed, expensive experimentation.
Is your company’s AI sovereign? A practical guide for CIOs on AI vendor lock-in, EU Data Act switching, cloud sovereignty, and testing your exit plan before you need it. The post Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave appeared first on GPT-Lab.
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