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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

STCFormer: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Modeling with Dynamic Cluster Transformer for Station-based Weather Forecasting

Station-based weather forecasting supports daily life and economic activity, yet accurate forecasts require modeling complex spatial dependencies among stations. Recent clustering-based selective modeling offers a promising alternative to dense inter-station interactions. However, a grouping shared across an observatio...

Rong Li, Hai-Xin Xie, Ming-Yang Wang et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

M$^2$Weather: A Benchmark for Joint Multi-Station and Multi-Variable Weather Forecasting

Station weather forecasting is fundamentally shaped by both complex spatial dependencies across stations and strong physical coupling among weather variables. However, existing studies often consider these relationships separately and use different datasets and experimental settings, hindering systematic assessment of...

Rongwen Li, Xiao Wang, Mingyang Wang et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Geometry-Aware Adaptation for Pretrained Models

Machine learning models -- including prominent zero-shot models -- are often trained on datasets whose labels are only a small proportion of a larger label space. Such spaces are commonly equipped with a metric that relates the labels via distances between them. We propose a simple approach to exploit this information...

Nicholas Roberts, Xintong Li, Dyah Adila et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

FERPO: Forward Entropy-Regularized Policy Optimization

Several state-of-the-art methods for online reinforcement learning in continuous control improve policies using action gradients of a learned critic. However, critics are typically trained to predict returns, and accurate value predictions do not necessarily yield accurate action derivatives, potentially leading to unr...

Sebastian Sanokowski, Alireza Sarmadi, Majid Khadiv · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Exact Distinguishability in Non-Markovian Decision Processes

It is proved that the posterior odds between observationally equivalent candidates remain equal to the prior odds at every sample size, even when the policy visits every automaton state, and PEC, an algorithm that decides it in time linear in the size of the product automaton is derived.

Kabir Murjani, Nisarg Patel · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

No Model Required: Text Entropy Rate Filtering Mitigates Iterative Fine-Tuning Collapse

Iterative fine-tuning on synthetic data causes \emph{model collapse}: output diversity narrows as rare patterns are progressively lost, a signature most visible as phrase-level repetition. Existing mitigations either require model log-probabilities, an external oracle, or continued access to real human data. Here we de...

Lewis Mitchell · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Review Oct 2026

Optimal Transport Meets Reinforcement Learning: A Survey

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms frequently compare probability distributions, such as state visitation distributions induced by policies and experts, action distributions from learned policies and offline datasets, or transition distributions from learned models and environments. However, commonly used divergenc...

Yu-Jie Zhu, Charles A. Hepburn, Matthew Thorpe et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching: Coupling-Sensitive End-to-End Rates

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source o...

Yun-Rui Guan, K. Balasubramanian, S. Kasiviswanathan · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Posterior sampling by source-space MCMC via prior-based few-step transport maps

Bayesian inference increasingly uses informative but implicit priors represented only by samples, such as historical ensembles, simulator outputs, and pretrained generative models. The same computational problem appears in the test-time guidance task (generalized Bayes), where an explicit positive weight, e.g., an expo...

Hoang Phuc Hau Luu, Marcelo Hartmann, Zhong-Jian Wang · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Sequential Functional Structured Tucker Compression for Large Language Model Attentions

FTC, a sequential structured compression framework that adapts the approximation to the current compressed model while jointly exploiting the native Q/K/V head structure under a fixed storage budget, achieves the lowest WikiText-2 perplexity among the compared methods.

Jian Chen, Xin-Yu Wang, Tian-Shuo Yan et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

How Divergence Becomes Decision Flips in Compressed Language Models

Compression reports summarize how far a compressed language model moved from the dense one, usually by a KL divergence; a deployment that relies on the dense model's outputs needs to know how many of its decisions changed. We show that total variation, not KL, answers this directly. Across 802 compressed and perturbed...

Beatriz Almeida Felício · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Target-Dependent Limits of Causal Repair: A Leading-Log Frontier in a Gaussian Model

Knowing how much a causal predictor could improve need not reveal the gain of the repair actually learned. We quantify this gap in a scalar Gaussian causal experiment with known intervention geometry: auxiliary data identify effect magnitude up to bounded contamination, while diagnostics identify direction. The target...

Qin-Chuan Cheng, Jia-Qi Liu, Rui Xie · 0 citations

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GPT-Lab Nov 3, 2026

Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave

Is your company’s AI sovereign? A practical guide for CIOs on AI vendor lock-in, EU Data Act switching, cloud sovereignty, and testing your exit plan before you need it. The post Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave appeared first on GPT-Lab.

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