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data science

3,686 papers

#machine learning Preprint Jun 2026

Amortized quadrature for posterior expectations in inverse problems

The quadrature field is introduced, a set-equivariant network that maps an observation and its posterior samples to an $M$-node signed-weight quadrature in one forward pass and is validated on closed-form and on learned posteriors, where it improves on the Monte-Carlo estimate in median at every node count, often by or...

Ali Siahkoohi · 0 citations

Identifying Causal Effects Using a Single Proxy Variable

Unobserved confounding is a key challenge when estimating causal effects from a treatment on an outcome. In this work, we assume that we observe a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and that we know the mechanism that generates the proxy from the confounder. Under an assum...

Silvan Vollmer, Niklas Pfister, S. Weichwald · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Mar 2026

On the Expressive Power of Transformers for Contextual Relations

This work develops a mathematical framework based on probability and optimal transport that provides a mathematical characterization of the expressive power of Transformers for contextual relations and shows how the choice of normalization determines the probabilistic structure of the relations represented by attention...

Demi'an Fraiman · 1 citation

Generative Modeling of Discrete Data Using Geometric Latent Subspaces

This work introduces latent subspaces in the exponential parameter space of product manifolds of categorical distributions as a novel approach to learning low-dimensional representations of high-dimensional discrete data.

Daniel Gonzalez-Alvarado, Jonas Cassel, Stefania Petra et al. · 0 citations

Learning Operators by Regularized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Operator-valued Kernels

This work considers a class of statistical inverse problems involving the estimation of a regression operator from a Polish space to a separable Hilbert space, where the target lies in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space induced by an operator-valued kernel.

Jia-Qi Yang, Lei Shi · 2 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Federated Martingale Posterior Samping

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters, which is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of this prior can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces th...

Boning Zhang, Matteo Zecchin, Mingzhao Guo et al. · 0 citations

Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making

This monograph gives a statistical perspective on algorithm design and complexity for interactive decision making, building from multi-armed bandits through contextual and structured bandits to reinforcement learning with function approximation within a single, unified framework.

Dylan J. Foster, A. Rakhlin · 36 citations · ⚡2
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

First-Order Stationarity of Reverse Diffusions

Recent literature has shown a strong connection between optimization and sampling. We develop the corresponding first-order theory for diffusion models. First, the SDE-based reverse-time flows of overdamped and underdamped Langevin diffusions contract relative Fisher divergences at explicit exponential rates whenever t...

Zhi-Feng Chen, Chen-Yang Jiang, Ya-Zhen Wang · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Uncertainty and Explainability in Deep Rough Volatility: A Neural Information-Theoretic Posterior Approach

A simulation-based inference framework for rough Heston (rHeston) calibration that learns the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditional on an IV surface and introduces Hellinger-SHAP, an information-theoretic explainability method for posterior inference.

D. Brigo, Raphael Huser, Dan Leonte · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Beyond Empirical Support: Structured Outlier Generation via Sinkhorn Optimal Transport

Outliers are essential for evaluating and improving the robustness of machine learning systems, especially when future distributions may differ significantly from historical training data. In high-stakes applications, robustness often depends on rare cases that finite datasets fail to capture, making simple resampling...

Hai-Xiang Sun, Andrew L. Liu · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Nonparametric In-Context Learning under Growing Geometric Complexity: Minimax Optimality and Local Geometry-Adaptivity of Transformers

These results identify conditions under which the resulting predictor exploits local geometry and attains the aggregate minimax rate, and derive an in-context generalization bound for near empirical risk minimizers over this class.

J. Seo, Jisu Kim · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Equation discovery with Bayesian tree-adjoining grammars

Bayesian TAGs are demonstrated to be well suited to quantifying uncertainty in equation discovery for dynamical systems and to fitting physics-informed models.

C. Lindley, N. Dervilis, Keith Worden · 0 citations

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GPT-Lab Nov 3, 2026

Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave

Is your company’s AI sovereign? A practical guide for CIOs on AI vendor lock-in, EU Data Act switching, cloud sovereignty, and testing your exit plan before you need it. The post Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave appeared first on GPT-Lab.

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