Online conformal prediction (OCP) seeks prediction intervals that achieve long-run $1-\alpha$ coverage for arbitrary (possibly adversarial) data streams, while remaining as informative as possible. Existing OCP methods often require manual learning-rate tuning to work well, and may also require algorithm-specific analy...
Tuo Liu, Edgar Dobriban, Francesco Orabona· 0 citations
Node popularity is recognized as a key factor in modeling real-world networks, capturing heterogeneity in connectivity across communities. This concept is equally important in bipartite networks, where nodes in different partitions may exhibit varying popularity patterns, motivating models such as the Two-Way Node Popu...
We provide a rigorous random matrix theory analysis of spiked cross-covariance models where the signals across two high-dimensional data channels are partially aligned. These models are motivated by multi-modal learning and form the standard generative setting underlying Partial Least Squares (PLS), a widely used yet t...
In this paper, we consider the problem of Gaussian approximation for the online linear regression task. We derive the corresponding rates for the setting of a constant stepsize and study the explicit dependence of the convergence rate on the problem dimension $d$ and quantities related to the design matrix. When the nu...
Marina Sheshukova, Alain Durmus, Marat Khusainov et al.· 0 citations
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We study a stochastic budget-allocation problem over $K$ tasks. At each round $t$, the learner chooses an allocation $X_t \in \Delta_K$. Task $k$ succeeds with probability $F_k(X_{t,k})$, where $F_1,\dots,F_K$ are nondecreasing budget-to-success curves, and upon success yields a random reward with unknown mean $\mu_k$....
Fran\c{c}ois Bachoc, Nicol\`o Cesa-Bianchi, Tommaso Cesari et al.· 0 citations
We introduce Hyper Input Convex Neural Networks (HyCNNs), a novel neural network architecture designed for learning convex functions. HyCNNs combine the principles of Maxout networks with input convex neural networks (ICNNs) to create a neural network that is always convex in the input, theoretically capable of leverag...
Shayan Hundrieser, Insung Kong, Johannes Schmidt-Hieber· 0 citations
The use of algorithmic predictions in decision-making leads to a feedback loop where the models we deploy actively influence the data distributions we see, and later use to retrain on. This dynamic was formalized by Perdomo et al. 2020 in their work on performative prediction. Our main result is an unconditional reduct...
We study online alignment of large language models under misspecified preference feedback, where the observed preference oracle deviates from an ideal but unknown ground-truth oracle. The online LLM alignment problem is a bi-level reinforcement problem due to the coupling between data collection and policy updates. Rec...
Recent works have shown that gradient-update alignment is a powerful signal for modulating optimizer updates, often leading to faster training. We promote this update-wise heuristic as a mathematically grounded principle for selecting and tuning optimizer hyperparameters. By treating gradients and updates as signals an...
At the edge of stability, the iterates of gradient descent oscillate along the sharp directions of the Hessian. This poses a significant challenge for continuous-time models as the usual continuous-time approximation -- the gradient flow -- admits no oscillations. Several continuous-time models have been proposed to ca...
We consider the problem of cross-validation (CV) in time series forecasting, with a focus on global forecasting models based on deep learning. The prevailing CV strategy in forecasting is to partition data across time with the last part of each series used for testing. With global models trained on collections of time...
Vitor Cerqueira, Mariana Oliveira, Luis Roque· 0 citations
Attention-based time series forecasters commonly group consecutive observations into patches. Patch length is known to have a substantial impact on forecasting performance, yet its selection remains largely empirical. We develop a theoretical framework that explains why patch length matters for forecasting accuracy and...
Is your company’s AI sovereign? A practical guide for CIOs on AI vendor lock-in, EU Data Act switching, cloud sovereignty, and testing your exit plan before you need it. The post Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave appeared first on GPT-Lab.