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data science

3,683 papers

#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

The Serial Scaling Hypothesis

While machine learning has advanced through massive parallelization, we identify a critical blind spot: some problems are fundamentally sequential. These "inherently serial" problems-from mathematical reasoning to physical simulations to sequential decision-making-require sequentially dependent computational steps that...

Yuxi Liu, Konpat Preechakul, Kananart Kuwaranancharoen et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Differentially Private Synthetic Data via APIs 3: Using Simulators Instead of Foundation Model

Differentially private (DP) synthetic data enables the use of sensitive datasets while providing strong privacy guarantees. Recently, Private Evolution (PE) has emerged as a promising framework for generating DP synthetic data using only inference APIs of foundation models. However, suitable foundation models are not a...

Zinan Lin, Tadas Baltrusaitis, Wenyu Wang et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Joint Neural Posterior Estimation and Model Selection for Chemical Reaction Networks

Simulation-based Bayesian inference for Chemical Reaction Networks (CRNs) must simultaneously solve two computationally demanding problems: discriminating between overlapping reaction pathways and estimating reaction rate constants. Classical approaches, such as Sequential Monte Carlo ABC, rely on handcrafted summary s...

J. Arturo Esquivel, Jorge A. Campos-Gonzalez-Angulo, Sergio Pablo-Garc\'ia et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Minimax rates for pointwise CATE estimation: the role of design smoothness

We study the role of design smoothness in the minimax estimation of conditional average treatment effects at a fixed covariate point. For design densities bounded above and away from zero, without further regularity, we derive upper and lower risk bounds with an arbitrarily small gap in the convergence-rate exponent. U...

Yuxuan Hou, Zhenghan Li · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Understanding Circulant Permutation to Extend the CMinHash Estimator

CMinHash promises a new direction for designing MinHash algorithms with reduced variance and storage space via circulant permutations. However, the original variance analysis is difficult to extend to other MinHash estimators. We present a new approach that gives explicit and easily comparable approximate variance expr...

Keegan Kang, Avery Hood, Benedict H. W. Wong · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

How Low Can You Go: Fine-Tuning LLMs with Bayesian Optimization (LlMBO)

Recently, Morris et al. introduced TinyLoRA, a strategy for LLM fine-tuning which introduces arbitrarily few parameters, and demonstrated accuracy improvements using less than $10$ parameters rather than the ${\gtrsim 10,000}$ typically demanded by LoRA-based methods. However, that study continued to use gradient-based...

Aditya Kulkarni, Davide Sartor, Carlos J. Soto et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Convergence-Rate-Guided Algorithm Design of Expected Improvement for Continuous Simulation Optimization

Expected improvement (EI) based on stochastic kriging (SK) surrogate is widely used in continuous simulation optimization, but unknown heteroscedastic noise on simulation output makes three basic design choices consequential: the incumbent used to define improvement, the replication level at each sampled point, and the...

Song-Hao Wang, Jiang-Lin Xia, Hao-Wei Wang et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

On the Optimality of Random Features under General Conditions: Misspecified Cases and Robust Learning

Random features provide a standard approach to scaling kernel methods to large datasets by approximating the kernel with a finite-dimensional feature map. Existing works of random feature methods primarily focus on well-specified models and light-tailed noise conditions, leaving a gap in understanding their performance...

Caixing Wang · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting with Operator-Valued Kernels

Hierarchical time series forecasting requires generating accurate predictions that are coherent across multiple levels of aggregation. Existing methods either rely on two-stage pipelines with post-hoc reconciliation or on end-to-end models that often lack statistical guarantees. We introduce a unified framework that fo...

Junjie Yang (LPSM), Adeline Fermanian (LMO, IUF) et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Reliable Scale-Free Bandits via Empirical Likelihood

The exact exponent of linear regret deviations on two-armed Gaussian instances with common variance is determined and a matching lower bound among policies satisfying the same expected-regret budget on every such Gaussian instance is established.

Pratham Gupta, Alhad Sethi, Shubhada Agrawal · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Weighting-Based Strategies for Classification: Analysis and Local Peak Dynamics with CART Trees

Tabular learning tasks often suffer from class imbalance, which is often addressed via weighting-based strategies. In this work, we compare the naive approach (unweighted) with the weighting-based rebalancing strategies. Somewhat surprisingly, we demonstrate that, asymptotically, as the predictor complexity increases w...

Abdoulaye Sakho (LPSM), Emmanuel Malherbe (LPSM), Erwan Scornet (LPSM) · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Learning Distributions from Samples and Qualities

We study parameter estimation when each sample from a continuous parametric distribution is accompanied by a binary quality label governed by the same unknown parameter. By imposing hard feasibility constraints, deterministic labels can accelerate estimation from the classical $n^{-1/2}$ rate of smooth quality-aware M-...

Marc Jourdan, Nicolas Flammarion · 0 citations

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Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave

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