Cryptocurrency markets exhibit extreme volatility and non-stationary dynamics that challenge conventional forecasting methods. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise for time series forecasting, the combined effects of adaptation choices remain largely unexplored in financial settings. This study introduces PRICE, a structured approach for adapting LLMs to short-term Bitcoin price forecasting. Built on a 4-bit quantized LLaMA-3 8B model, PRICE investigates how fine-tuning, numerical representation, prompting, inference, and decoding jointly influence forecasting performance. PRICE integrates Parameter-efficient fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), Recursive multi-step inference, Integer-rounded numerical representation, Context-Task-Format (CTF) prompting, and Exact zero-temperature decoding. Ablation studies show that each component contributes to forecasting accuracy and reliability. LoRA enables efficient training on limited hardware, recursive inference improves accuracy, integer-rounded values reduce errors, CTF prompting outperforms Chain-of-Thought, Implicit Chain-of-Thought (iCoT), and few-shot prompting, and zero-temperature decoding improves stability during recursive forecasting. Comparative evaluation against eight transformer-based and time-series foundation models shows that PRICE achieves the lowest forecasting errors on both validation and test sets while maintaining robust performance across evaluation periods. Despite being based on a model primarily pretrained on text rather than time-series data, PRICE achieves competitive or superior performance relative to specialized foundation models. These findings demonstrate that adaptation choices critically determine the accuracy and robustness of LLMs for numerical time-series forecasting.
Large language models (LLMs) show strong reasoning ability, but their explanations can remain inconsistent, weakly grounded, or difficult to verify. We propose a verifier-guided explainable reasoning framework for transparent educational question answering that combines gold-anchored QLoRA, task-aware symbolic routing, and group-relative RLVR. Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct is first adapted with field-weighted QLoRA supervision anchored to authoritative answers. A lightweight router then assigns logic problems to a FOL/Z3 verifier and physics problems to a formula- and unit aware symbolic solver. Verifier feedback is further used to support candidate evaluation, self-revision, and reward construction during RLVR. Candidate responses are evaluated along three complementary dimensions: P1 for answer correctness, P2 for evidence or unit consistency, and P3 for reasoning depth and explainability. At inference, gold-free self-consistency aggregates multiple candidate responses before an optional question-only physics verifier performs conservative system-level correction. On 438 held-out examples, RLVR increases P3 from 50.68% to 72.20%, while hybrid P1 remains approximately stable at 55.94%. Self-consistency improves model only P1 from 48.86% to 50.23%, with symbolic verification providing the remaining hybrid gain. These results indicate that RLVR primarily strengthens explicit reasoning structure, while symbolic verification complements the neural policy by improving answer reliability at the system level.
Thi Kim Trang Vo, Nam Tien Le, Thi Kim Nguyet Vo et al.· 0 citations
The number of discrete class-separability jumps observed during ResNet finetuning is examined empirically as a predictor of final test accuracy. Across 75 experiments spanning four benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, TinyImageNet, and CIFAR-10-C) and three architectures (ResNet-18, ResNet-50, and ResNet-101), with five to ten seeds per configuration, a strong within-dataset negative correlation is obtained on standard i.i.d. classification benchmarks: \(r = -0.84\) on CIFAR-10 (\(p < 10^{-8}\), \(n = 30\)) and \(r = -0.87\) on CIFAR-100 (\(p < 10^{-5}\), \(n = 15\)). Under distributional stress, the relationship attenuates: TinyImageNet yields \(r = -0.45\), and the CIFAR-10-C corruption benchmark yields \(r = -0.19\). Two additional analyses discipline the empirical claim. A partial correlation controlling for architecture depth, treated as a linear covariate, shows that on CIFAR-100 the transition count retains statistically significant predictive power (\(r_{\mathrm{partial}} = -0.69\), \(p = 0.007\)); the corresponding result under the stricter categorical conditioning is not established at \(n = 15\). A comparison against six alternative training-curve signals shows that transition count achieved the strongest correlation among the evaluated signals on CIFAR-100 and one of the strongest on CIFAR-10, but is dominated by other signals on the two stressed benchmarks. The comparison is restricted to training-curve-level signals; comparisons against effective rank, Hessian sharpness, Fisher information, margin, and neural-collapse measures, which are the strongest competitors in the current literature, are not part of the present study and remain open. The observation is presented as an in-distribution training-quality probe among a family of candidate probes, and an inexpensive detection procedure suitable for logging alongside a standard training loop is provided.
This paper introduces Regime-aware Constraint-Based and Noise-Based causal discovery with Markov Blankets (RCBNB-MB), a novel causal discovery algorithm for time series that relaxes the common assumption of a single, time-consistent causal structure. Time series are typically observed at discrete time points and often exhibit regime changes that challenge the assumption of a static causal structure, a limitation in many real-world dynamic systems. To address this challenge, RCBNB-MB identifies latent causal regimes, defined as subsets of time points within which a stable causal structure holds. The algorithm follows an iterative strategy that segments the time series into regimes and discovers the causal graph within each regime. By leveraging the Markov blanket rather than direct parents, RCBNB-MB gains robustness to errors in causal discovery and preserves predictive information. We provide theoretical guarantees for RCBNB-MB's ability to recover both regime transitions and causal graphs under reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, we validate its effectiveness through extensive experiments on simulated datasets with known ground truth and real-world IT monitoring data, where taking into account regime shifts is critical. Empirical results show that RCBNB-MB systematically outperforms baseline approaches in accurately detecting regime changes and their associated causal graphs, positioning it as a robust and versatile framework for non-stationary time series analysis.
Lei Zan, Charles K. Assaad, Emilie Devijver et al.· 0 citations
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AI-driven de novo molecular design offers a promising route to accelerate early-stage drug discovery by generating novel ligands directly within target protein binding pockets. We present NEAT-POCKET, a pocket-conditioned extension of the autoregressive NEAT model for 3D molecular generation. NEAT-POCKET generates molecules atom by atom in protein pocket environments while preserving atom permutation invariance and explicitly modeling hydrogen atoms. Benchmarks on the CrossDocked and SPINDR datasets show that NEAT-POCKET achieves competitive structure-based generation performance while sampling substantially faster than existing baselines. Beyond full-molecule generation, NEAT-POCKET naturally enables pocket-conditioned fragment completion, a task directly relevant to lead optimization and scaffold elaboration. These results position NEAT-POCKET as a fast, flexible, and practical framework for structure-based drug design.
Roxane Axel Jacob, Daniel Rose, Thierry Langer et al.· 0 citations
When a customer adds a professional camera to their cart, should the system suggest a matching lens, a generic tripod, or another camera body? Complementary Product Recommendation is vital for comprehensive basket building, yet standard models often fail to distinguish between items that are merely bought together and those that truly work together. In this paper, we present AlleCompanion: a production-scale retrieval framework deployed at Allegro.com that transforms noisy behavioural signals into precise semantic compatibility. We mitigate the intrinsic noise in large-scale co-purchase traffic by combining data-level filtering heuristics with a category-constrained Two Tower architecture. Within this framework, the Category Adapter guides the model in the embedding space, constraining candidates within logically complementary boundaries. Since modelling authentic user behaviour at scale is inherently difficult, we introduce ComCat, a multi-source Complementary Categories Mapping. ComCat acts as a translational layer that distils meaningful patterns from noisy traffic into a maintainable and controllable solution, integrating expert rules, human-in-the-loop feedback, LLM-based reasoning, and statistical mining. Our experimental results demonstrate that combining explicit category-level constraints with neural architectures effectively filters out co-purchase noise to surface recommendations that satisfy real-world user needs. Serving over 20 million active users monthly, the framework delivers significant uplifts in attributed GMV for organic discovery and drives substantial revenue growth in sponsored placements.
Aleksandra Osowska-Kurczab, Klaudia Nazarko, Eli\v{s}ka Kosturov\'a et al.· 0 citations
Scaling laws guide the design choices for training large foundation models, but deriving them involves training an exhaustive grid over hyperparameters, token budgets, and parameter counts, which is computationally expensive. Fitting a scaling law, however, only requires the best-loss frontier across compute scales, discarding most of the trained configurations. We propose a framework for efficient scaling law construction that formulates data collection as a Bayesian optimization problem, and introduce metrics for comparing scaling law fitting methods under constrained compute budgets. We find that progressively expanding the compute budget during acquisition, mirroring the compute-ordered evaluation of configurations in practice, substantially improves recovery efficiency. Augmenting the observed configurations with surrogate-fantasized evaluations then recovers the broader experimental grid, allowing accurate scaling law fitting without training every configuration. Together, these can closely match scaling law fits over a full dense grid at computational savings of up to $10\text{--}100\times$.
Abhash Kumar Jha, Diana Alexandra Onu\c{t}u, Neeratyoy Mallik et al.· 0 citations
Diffusion probabilistic models can capture the multi-modal, interaction-rich distribution of joint future trajectories in driving scenes. We show that a single pretrained diffusion traffic model can serve two complementary roles in the autonomous driving development loop: as an ego motion planner, and as a controllable generator of safety-critical scenarios for stress-testing the planners. On the planning side, we introduce a Single-Stream Dual-Stream (SSDS) diffusion-transformer decoder that fuses scene context via joint attention rather than late cross-attention, improving closed-loop performance on nuPlan. We further propose Decoupled Annealing Posterior Sampling with Energy (DAPSE), a training-free guidance scheme that injects arbitrary energy functions at the clean-sample level, avoiding the first-order approximation errors while requiring no auxiliary networks. Beyond planning, we leverage the same diffusion model as a controllable scenario generator to create realistic long-tail driving interactions for closed-loop evaluation. Through inference-time guidance, selected agents are steered toward safety-critical behaviors, including aggressive cut-ins, lead-vehicle braking, and combined longitudinal-lateral interactions, while preserving realistic traffic behaviors. Evaluated in closed-loop nuPlan simulations with independent black-box planners, the generated scenarios expose failure modes that remain hidden under standard benchmarks. Although the SSDS-based planner achieves stronger nominal performance, it experiences larger degradation under these challenging scenarios, demonstrating that benchmark superiority does not necessarily translate to robustness. These results demonstrate that a single learned traffic prior can simultaneously improve motion planning and provide a realistic framework for systematic planner robustness evaluation.
Arka Pal, Rajesh Kumar, Hannes Eriksson et al.· 0 citations
As a potent greenhouse gas, methane is a major driver of climate change. Its effective mitigation relies on timely detection. Conventional detection methods rely on orthorectification to correct geometric distortions and matched filters to enhance plume signals, which are steps designed for ground processing and poorly suited to onboard execution. We introduce UnorthoDOS, a dataset and approach for training machine learning models directly on unorthorectified hyperspectral imagery, bypassing both orthorectification and matched-filter products. Our U-Net models trained on unorthorectified data approach the performance of models trained on orthorectified data (IoU 16.91% vs. 18.47% on all plumes), while both substantially outperform the mag1c matched-filter baseline (IoU 4.76%). We further demonstrate the feasibility of onboard deployment: FP16 compression halves model size with under 0.3% output deviation. The trained ML models and two ML-ready datasets -- orthorectified and unorthorectified hyperspectral imagery from the EMIT sensor -- are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SpaceML/UnorthoDOS, with code at https://github.com/spaceml-org/plume-hunter.
Luca Marini, Maggie Chen, Hala Lamdouar et al.· 0 citations
Can we recover the 3D poses of multiple people using only sound? This paper presents the first attempt to estimate multi-person 3D poses solely from acoustic signals. Estimating the poses of multiple individuals using acoustic signals is inherently challenging due to the superposition of motion-dependent signal variations. Unlike single-person scenarios, the presence of multiple subjects leads to overlapping acoustic signatures, making it difficult to attribute specific signal changes to an individual's pose. Furthermore, the complexity is compounded by inter-person reflections, which introduce intricate propagation delays that obscure the temporal motion-acoustic relationship. To address these issues, we propose SoundMHPE (Sound-based Multi-person Human Pose Estimator), a novel encoder-decoder framework consisting of two key components. First, the Acoustic Multi-scale Encoder captures diverse temporal and fine-grained frequency features to isolate subtle acoustic signatures from complex, overlapping signals. Second, the Temporal Pose Decoder employs an attention mechanism to disentangle multi-person information across successive frames. By jointly accounting for temporal dynamics and inter-person dependencies, this component precisely reconstructs frame-wise individual poses. To validate our approach, we constructed the 6-hour Acoustic Multi-person Pose (AMP) dataset consisting of 432K synchronized frames of multi-person pose and acoustic data, and demonstrated that our SoundMHPE outperforms baseline models. Project page: https://oumi03.github.io/sound-mhpe/
Yusuke Oumi, Yuto Shibata, Go Irie et al.· 0 citations
Tabular foundation models (TabFMs) achieve strong performance on structured data, particularly for standard classification and regression problems. Yet, extending them to censored time-to-event prediction is challenging because it requires properly handling censoring and event-time dynamics. Building on our prior work, we further link TabFMs with CoxPH and DeepHit and revise the context-resampled training procedure. We evaluate temporal zero-shot reformulation, classification-based fine-tuning, and survival-head adaptation using frozen TabFM backbones on 74 single-risk data sets, and we additionally study 4 competing-risk data sets. Zero-shot inference is effective on smaller single-risk data sets, whereas supervised adaptation becomes increasingly advantageous as data sets scale. Cox provides the most reliably strong interface, especially for Integrated Brier Score (IBS) on larger data sets. DeepHit is relatively stronger for the time-dependent Concordance Index than for IBS, while cause-specific MTLR ranks highest among the TabFM survival heads in the four-data-set competing-risk analysis. Classification fine-tuning becomes more competitive with zero-shot inference as data sets grow but remains weaker for probabilistic prediction. Overall, our results indicate that effective TabFM transfer depends on the data regime and on the statistical structure represented by the chosen adaptation interface. The implementation scripts used for this work are available at https://github.com/kaylode/survival-fm.
Minh-Khoi Pham, Luca Cotugno, Dan Cernei et al.· 0 citations
Graph representation learning (GRL) serves as a canonical paradigm for modeling complex networks. However, real-world AI systems inherently manifest as evolving heterogeneous entities with complex interactions, posing significant challenges to static or homogeneous modeling. To address these complexities, representation learning for Dynamic Heterogeneous Graphs (DHGs) has emerged as a vital approach for learning low-dimensional representations that simultaneously preserve structural semantics and temporal dynamics. This survey presents the first systematic review of DHG representation learning methods. We first introduce a unified formal definition that encompasses both discrete-time and continuous-time DHGs from the perspective of temporal granularity. Building upon this formulation, we propose a novel algorithm-centric taxonomy that categorizes existing literature, including early embedding-based approaches, graph neural network (GNN)-based models, and relatively recent Transformer-based DHG methods, while explicitly highlighting their intrinsic modeling biases with respect to dynamic granularity. Furthermore, we summarize representative applications of DHG representation learning, along with commonly used datasets and benchmarks. Finally, we discuss promising research directions that guide future advances in this rapidly evolving field.
Huan Liu, Pengfei Jiao, Jie Yin et al.· 0 citations
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduAug 24, 2026
A new method for surgically removing training examples from a model reveals that as datasets grow, the link between what a model learns and what it produces dissolves.
