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3,121 papers

#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

On-board ML for Trace Gas detection in Imaging Spectroscopy data

Data collected during aerial and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy campaigns enables the detection of transient events such as trace gas emissions. However, current processing pipelines depend on slow, on-the-ground processing, which delays the time to information of each detected event and prohibits immediate follow-up actions. During the Tokyo Field Campaign of March 2026, we explored on-board processing of Imaging Spectroscopy data from the equipped AVIRIS-5 sensor. Due to communication bottlenecks, full datacubes cannot be downlinked immediately during the flight. Instead we downlink the potential events predicted by our efficient and small machine learning model. We show the first on-board detection of methane point source emission with Imaging Spectroscopy data using Edge ML.

V\'it R\r{u}\v{z}i\v{c}ka, Adam Chlus, Andrew Thorpe et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Conformity Breaks Conformal Prediction

A conformal certificate can be valid when an LLM answers alone and invalid when the same LLM sees peers that unanimously assert a wrong answer. The question is unchanged; the model's score for the correct answer changes. We call this a score-mechanism shift: clean calibration certifies how the model scores answers alone, but not how it scores them under peer pressure. We show that this shift silently breaks conformal prediction in multi-agent LLM systems. Across open-weight models and multiple-choice QA tasks, coverage falls from a calibrated 90% to 74% under unanimous-wrong peers at the standard alpha = 0.10 operating point. The average hides a sharper failure: by targeting the low-confidence items the certificate still covers, an attacker nearly halves coverage on that subgroup, from 87% to 47%, while the monitored average remains much higher. The failure also reaches the decision layer: a system that should escalate when uncertain can instead become confident enough to act on the attacker's wrong answer. Standard conformal fixes do not solve the problem, because the question distribution has not changed; the model's scoring behavior has.

Yibo Hu, Hanyu Su · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

A Repeated-Measurement Study for Cultural Analytics of English Song Lyrics Using Five Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to annotate cultural texts at scales that are impractical for human coders. However, before their outputs are treated as measurements of latent social constructs, it is necessary to establish whether those measurements are reliable. This study evaluates five LLMs as zero-shot annotators of four social constructs expressed in English song lyrics: self-esteem, self-control, seeking belonging, and seeking recognition. Using repeated annotations of a large lyric corpus, we examine three properties of LLM-based measurement: consistency across repeated runs, convergence across models, and transferability of consensus labels to supervised classification. The findings show that LLM-based measurement is not uniformly reliable across constructs. Self-esteem exhibits the strongest repeated-measurement reliability across models, while seeking recognition is generally less stable; self-control and seeking belonging show intermediate but model-dependent reliability. Downstream classification further indicates that consensus LLM labels contain learnable signal, although transferability does not itself establish construct validity. Repeated-measurement stability and cross-model convergence should therefore be reported before LLM annotations are treated as scalable measurements in cultural analytics.

E. Cho Smith, Samuel Ho, Dawn Laux · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Beyond a Universal Forecasting Selector: Demand-Conditioned Model Selection across Demand Patterns and Horizons

Forecasting-model selection remains difficult in heterogeneous demand because the most suitable decision rule may vary with demand structure, data availability, and forecasting horizon. This study examines whether the selector itself should be treated as a context-dependent component of the forecasting process. Five selection mechanisms - RMSSE, ERA, OWA, CCG-AHSC, and CCG-AHSCD - are compared across 24 optimized forecasting models, nine datasets, three training-testing partitions, and horizons from 1 to 12 cycles. Selector performance is evaluated ex post using Global Relative Accuracy (GRA), statistical tests, and a best-attainable-model reference. No selector dominates across all conditions. CCG-AHSC and CCG-AHSCD are more competitive for Smooth demand and several Erratic configurations, whereas OWA and ERA perform better in Intermittent and Lumpy settings. Selector suitability also changes with historical data availability and horizon, supporting a context-dependent rather than universal approach to forecasting-model selection.

Adolfo Gonz\'alez · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Disentangling Attention in Deep Operator Learning: A Controlled Study of Data-Driven and Physics-Informed Architectures

Deep neural operators learn mappings between input functions and complete PDE solution fields, enabling forward evaluations of new problem instances orders of magnitude faster than conventional numerical solvers. Attention mechanisms have recently been introduced into neural operators, but most studies change several architectural components at once, making it difficult to identify what actually improves accuracy. This work presents a controlled and systematic study of five deep operator network (DeepONet) variants with distinct attention mechanisms, trained under both data-driven and physics-informed regimes, to isolate the effects of cross-attention, self-attention, tokenization, and attention depth. We evaluate them on a source-driven transient one-dimensional nonlinear diffusion-reaction equation, a transient one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with variable initial conditions, and a two-dimensional Poisson heat-conduction problem with heterogeneous source fields. Per-sensor tokenization with cross-attention reduces the mean relative L_2 error of the classical DeepONet in all benchmark-training combinations by factors of 2.4-28.0, while the best attention configurations reach 3.5-32.3. Branch self-attention paired only with dot-product fusion is inconsistent, degrading the one-dimensional problems while helping the more complex two-dimensional source field; added on top of cross-attention it improves all six cases, though by less than cross-attention fusion alone. Global pre-mixing provides no consistent benefit. Increasing cross-attention depth further improves accuracy, but with diminishing returns and a substantially higher cost under physics-informed training. Overall, query-dependent cross-attention is the most reliable mechanism, whereas branch self-attention is most useful for large, spatially complex functional inputs.

Amar Alem Koric, Qibang Liu, Seid Koric · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

On the Abundance of Critical Points of the t-SNE Energy

This paper considers the energy landscape of the t-SNE algorithm. While this algorithm has enjoyed broad adoption, the non-convexity of the associated energy has made it difficult to rigorously understand what the algorithm captures in many settings. In particular, a number of well-known numerical examples, several of which are reproduced in this article, suggest a complicated energy landscape with many local minimizers that do not respect the topology or clustering structure of the underlying data. This work seeks to provide first steps towards a rigorous explanation of these phenomena. Specifically, for a general family of energies, which include both the original t-SNE algorithm and recently identified large data limits, and for densities in feature space which obey a continuous symmetry, we construct infinite families of distinct critical points. These critical points are based upon identifying pairs of discrete symmetries, one in the original feature space and the other in the target embedding space, which are preserved under gradient dynamics. These critical configurations exhibit many characteristics, such as topology breaking and spurious clustering, which are often observed empirically. Finally, numerical and analytical examples are given throughout as a means of illustrating the approach.

Nakul Haridas, Ryan Murray · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

A Quantum Variational Approach to Prototypical Recurrent Unit

We introduce a lightweight Quantum Prototypical Recurrent Unit (QPRU) that requires significantly fewer parameters than both classical recurrent architectures, such as Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and quantum variants, including Quantum LSTM (QLSTM) and Quantum GRU (QGRU). Despite its compact design, the QPRU achieves competitive forecasting performance, matching state-of-the-art baselines while offering important structural and practical advantages, including enhanced scalability and a reduced number of trainable parameters.

Mahyar Sadeghi Garjan, Tommaso Cesari, Michel Barbeau · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

SharedSAE: One Feature Dictionary Across Language Models

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to interpret language model activations, but SAE training and latent labelling are typically repeated for every model. Here, we show that a single shared SAE can replace a collection of dedicated per-model SAEs. Our method, SharedSAE, combines a shared dictionary with model-specific encoder-decoder pairs. Unlike the closest prior method, which discards activation magnitudes and requires all models at inference, SharedSAE instead normalizes only selection scores, preserving magnitudes, and uses model dropout for single-model inference. We train SharedSAE on four 1B-scale base language models spanning distinct families and tokenizers. Despite sharing its latents across models, SharedSAE retains 96.6% of dedicated SAEs' mean explained variance; its latent activations exhibit cross-model correlations 1.8 times as high as separate SAEs aligned post-hoc, and its latent descriptions transfer across models. After the dictionary is frozen, new models can be efficiently adapted to it, achieving near-dedicated-SAE reconstruction quality while reusing the shared latent descriptions.

Daniil Ognev, C\'elian Vasson, Lijie Hu et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Modular Deep Recurrent Neural Network: Application to Quadrotors

A modular deep Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) is introduced to facilitate the process of deploying various architectures of RNNs, and to automatically compute derivatives for gradient-based learning methods. The modularity leads to a set of new architectures, one of which includes feedforward inter-layer connections. By adding feedforward inter-layer connections in a multi-layer RNN, it is observed that the capability of the RNN to learn and model high-order dynamics and nonlinearities is significantly improved. The problem of vanishing/exploding gradient in space for a multilayer RNN is also alleviated using feedforward connections. These results are demonstrated using a quadrotor case study, for which a model of the altitude dynamics is learned with our particular network structure, while existing methods are unable to generalize as quickly or at all.

Nima Mohajerin, Steven L. Waslander · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

BER-PEF: Unified Human Mobility Predictability Evaluation via Bayes Error Rate Estimation

Human mobility predictability concerns the best prediction performance attainable from a given target and input information, but its ground truth is not directly observable on real mobility data. We present BER-PEF, a Bayes-error-rate-based framework that converts BER estimation into mobility predictability estimation and provides a unified protocol for comparing estimators without observable ground truth. The framework maps symbolic sequences, numeric trajectories, contextual features, and learned representations into a common feature--label space, then evaluates estimator outputs along controlled perturbation curves against a shared predictability reference interval by measuring deviations below the interval, above the interval, and across the full interval. Experiments on Foursquare NYC and TKY, GeoLife, and T-Drive show that several BER-based estimators achieve lower reference discrepancy than existing predictability methods on symbolic sequences and numeric trajectories, while their estimates track changes in empirical prediction performance under perturbation. Additional analyses show that contextual inputs and multiple structured representations can be evaluated under the same protocol, and that aggregating evidence across multiple perturbation levels provides a more reliable basis for estimator selection than relying on a single unperturbed observation. BER-PEF therefore offers a unified and verifiable path for evaluating predictability estimators on heterogeneous mobility data when ground-truth predictability is unavailable.

En Xu, Jingtao Ding, Zhiwen Yu et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Evaluating Large Language Models for Forced Outage Risk Prediction: Benefits and Comparison to Machine Learning

This study examines the ability of large language models (LLMs) to predict the risk of weather-related forced outages in the distribution grid in a zero-shot framework, without labeled training data. The problem is formulated as a binary severity classification task across three forecast horizons (3h, 6h, 12h), using six years of outage records and high-resolution weather data for a utility service area in central Texas. Four zero-shot LLMs are benchmarked against two supervised classifiers across two input configurations: one using current weather observations and the other using weather forecast data. Results show that supervised models outperform LLMs on macro-F1 and precision, while newer LLM generations achieve competitive scores. Beyond accuracy, LLMs offer complementary strengths in actionable reasoning and geographic scalability, suggesting that combining them with supervised models may be the best practice.

Christos Petridis, Zoran Obradovic, Mladen Kezunovic · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Quantum-Assisted Memory-Efficient Training for Parameter-Intensive Wi-Fi-Based Human Activity Recognition

Wi-Fi-based human activity recognition (HAR) has become an important part of integrated sensing and communications, paving the way for a range of context-aware services. However, most existing Wi-Fi-based HAR systems rely on deep learning (DL) models that are computationally and memory intensive in both training and inference, which poses significant challenges for real-world deployment. Conventional training requires simultaneous updates of millions of parameters, leading to prohibitive memory consumption. In this paper, we propose a novel quantum-assisted memory-efficient training framework (Q-MET) designed to improve efficiency in both training and inference. Q-MET utilizes a hybrid quantum classical neural network to indirectly generate parameters for HAR models, significantly reducing the trainable parameter count compared to direct optimization. To further support the deployment on resource-constrained devices, we integrate structured pruning during the training phase. Experimental results demonstrate that Q-MET achieves a 90% to 95% reduction in trainable parameters compared with conventional backpropagation-based DL training while maintaining or even exceeding classical classification accuracy. Additionally, Q-MET supports lightweight inference through structured pruning, achieving 75% to 85% model sparsity with less than 2% loss in classification accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first quantum-assisted approach to simultaneously tackle memory inefficiencies in both the training and inference stages of HAR systems.

To Truong An, Jie Zhang, Guolin Yin et al. · 0 citations

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MIT News · Artificial Intelligence Aug 27, 2026

Looking beyond natural sequences

A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.

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