Cloud Resource Workload Forecasting Method Based on the MST-iTransformer Model

Abstract

With the widespread adoption of cloud computing technology, modern cloud platforms have become increasingly complex and dynamic, posing significant challenges for efficient resource management. Accurate forecasting of cloud resource loads has therefore become essential for improving service quality, optimizing resource utilization, and reducing operational costs. To address the intrinsic characteristics of cloud load time series, including nonlinear fluctuations, multi-scale temporal dependencies, and redundant high-dimensional features, this paper proposes the MST-iTransformer model, which integrates multi-scale temporal encoding, sparse attention, and adaptive feature selection mechanisms. Specifically, a multi-scale temporal encoding module is developed to capture and fuse temporal dependencies across multiple periodic scales. Furthermore, an adaptive feature selection module is introduced to dynamically assign importance weights to resource features, enhancing informative variables while suppressing redundant ones. Meanwhile, a sparse attention mechanism is incorporated to reduce computational overhead while maintaining forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is evaluated on the Alibaba Cluster Trace dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that MST-iTransformer achieves MSE, RMSE, and MAE values of 0.5559, 0.7456, and 0.4968, respectively. Compared with the original iTransformer, the proposed model achieves simultaneous reductions in prediction errors and inference latency, validating the effectiveness of the multi-scale temporal encoding, sparse attention mechanism, and adaptive feature selection modules in improving forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. These improvements provide reliable prediction support for resource scheduling and elastic scaling in cloud data centers.