Optimization and Accuracy Improvement of Power Forecasting Models for Wind Farms Under Transient Weather Conditions

Abstract

Given the problems of non-stationary power time series, response lag, and amplified prediction errors due to sudden changes in wind direction under transitional meteorological conditions, this study proposes a wind power forecasting model that integrates multiscale time-series features, transition-aware attention mechanisms, physical constraints on turbine operation, and dynamic residual correction. To improve the model's ability to jointly characterize different scales of meteorological evolution and power lag characteristics, a feature extraction network with short-, medium-, and long-term branches based on TCN (Temporal Convolutional Network) is built, which incorporates bidirectional GRU and Transformer architectures; additionally, the feature weights at each scale are dynamically adjusted according to the severity of inflection points, and the prediction output is constrained by air density, power curves, operational status and ramping limits. Residual caching and time-delay gating are employed to correct for lag errors in the range of 1 to 6 sampling steps. 50,842 valid data sets from a wind farm were used for validation. The general MAE and RMSE of the model were 0.258 MW and 0.386 MW, respectively, and these were lower than those of the baseline TCN by 21.58% and 20.90%. In the transition period, the MAE and RMSE were 0.305 MW and 0.448 MW; these had been reduced by 22.19% and 23.29%. Therefore, the developed model can reduce peak deviations caused by abrupt changes in weather and improve the accuracy and stability of wind power forecasting under all operating conditions.