Research on unmanned aerial vehicle exposure risk assessment based on trajectory and speed

Abstract

Flight safety is undoubtedly the core consideration in the trajectory planning of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during military missions. In light of this, how to comprehensively integrate flight data such as trajectory and flight speed, as well as the characteristics and performance of detectors in the mission environment, to accurately quantify the flight safety of UAVs has become an urgent, fundamental, and critical issue to be addressed. This study innovatively proposes the concept of "flight exposure risk". Based on an in-depth analysis of the potential risk sources during UAV flight, this study constructs a mathematical model for UAV flight exposure risk assessment by combining key parameters such as detection angles and distances in directed sensor networks. Subsequently, this study employs curve integral techniques to provide a clear mathematical definition of UAV flight exposure risk from the perspective of trajectory and flight speed. Finally, from the perspective of numerical calculation and algorithm implementation, this study puts forward a set of specific methods for UAV flight exposure risk assessment. The research results indicate that this method can effectively evaluate the risk of UAVs being detected or interfered with by the enemy during mission execution, providing solid and precise data support for trajectory planning in military missions such as low-altitude reconnaissance and high-value supply delivery. Notably, the proposed flight exposure risk index is designed for relative comparison of UAV detectability across different trajectories, rather than representing an exact enemy detection probability; it also differs from traditional minimum exposure-path models and low-altitude risk assessment models by integrating both trajectory spatial features and flight speed.