Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Buildings’ Heating and Cooling Demand

Abstract

Climate change has become one of the most urgent challenges of the 21st century, shaping environmental, economic, and social dynamics on a global scale. In the Mediterranean basin, temperatures have risen by 1.5 °C, with projections suggesting a further increase of 5.6 °C by 2100. The building sector represents a critical intervention point, accounting for 30% of final energy consumption and 27% of global carbon dioxide emissions. While passive strategies mitigate these impacts, current energy policies fail to consider future variations in heating and cooling demand due to climate change. Using OpenStudio and EnergyPlus, three reference models (small office, residential building, and hospital) were simulated across five Spanish climatic areas (Almería, Córdoba, Cáceres, Lleida, León). Current conditions were compared against 2050 projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5) utilizing the morphing method. The results revealed a systemic shift toward cooling-dominated profiles. Small office heating demand drops by 18–34%, while cooling demand increases by 80–274%. Residential heating decreases by 19–36%, while cooling increases by 85–706%. Hospitals show milder relative variations, yet cooling demand rises 64–114%. These findings, based on thermal energy demand (kWh/m2), emphasize the need for climate-responsive design and efficient retrofitting. Conclusions regarding peak power grid stress, carbon emissions, or energy poverty are indirect implications; translating thermal demand to final energy, primary energy, or emissions requires accounting for HVAC system efficiency, energy source mix, and emission factors, which are outside the scope of this study.