Geoeconomics of Resilience—The Fusion of National Security and Energy Transition in a New Monetary Policy Paradigm

Abstract

This paper investigates how restrictive monetary policy impacts long-term strategic infrastructure financing under conditions of geopolitical fragmentation and supply-side inflationary pressures. The analysis focuses on Poland, a medium-sized European economy exposed to energy transition requirements, post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, and regional geopolitical instability. Using quarterly data for 2005Q1–2024Q2, the study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to evaluate the transmission of monetary policy shocks to inflation dynamics and sectoral credit allocation. The research examines bank lending directed toward infrastructure-intensive sectors, including energy, utilities, transport, and strategic industrial investments. Empirical results demonstrate that while monetary tightening contributes to a statistically significant reduction in inflationary pressures over the medium term, it simultaneously triggers unintended consequences. Specifically, higher policy rates are associated with a persistent contraction in long-term infrastructure-related credit volumes. Impulse response analysis reveals that this decline in strategic infrastructure financing is disproportionately stronger and more enduring than the drop observed in aggregate corporate lending. These findings highlight asymmetric monetary transmission effects across investment categories. Consequently, the paper suggests implementing targeted macroprudential and liquidity-support instruments to protect strategic sectors without compromising inflation stabilization objectives.