Evaluating AI Tutoring at the Speed of Innovation: Practitioner-Led Micro-Randomised Trials of an AI Tutoring Platform in GCSE Science
TL;DR
It is argued that the value of micro-RCTs for educational AI lies not in replacing definitive evaluation with small studies, but in enabling a rapid, cumulative evaluation architecture in which randomised estimates can be generated, replicated and updated as technologies and their implementation evolve.
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems in education are developing on timescales that sit uneasily with conventional evaluation. By the time a large-scale trial has been designed, delivered, analysed and published, the technology under study may have changed materially. This creates a temporal problem for evidence-informed education: the need for timely evidence can encourage reliance on weak observational or usage data, while conventional rigorous evaluation may produce evidence too slowly to guide rapidly evolving practice. We examine teacher-led micro-randomised controlled trials (micro-RCTs) as one response to this problem. The empirical case is a four-week multisite individually randomised evaluation of Medly, an AI-powered tutoring platform, in GCSE Biology, Chemistry and Physics in English secondary schools. Of 929 students completing baseline assessment, 644 completed post-testing. In the primary ITT analysis, students allocated to Medly achieved higher post-test attainment than students undertaking business-as-usual self-directed revision (Hedges'g = 0.33, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.48). Positive estimates were observed in Physics (g = 0.31), Chemistry (g = 0.32) and Biology (g = 0.52), with no evidence of differential impact by disadvantage status. Greater platform engagement was associated with higher attainment, but these post-randomisation analyses are treated as exploratory rather than causal. Attrition was substantial (30.7%), outcome measures were curriculum-aligned rather than standardised, and process evaluation response was limited. We therefore interpret the findings as preliminary. We argue that the value of micro-RCTs for educational AI lies not in replacing definitive evaluation with small studies, but in enabling a rapid, cumulative evaluation architecture in which randomised estimates can be generated, replicated and updated as technologies and their implementation evolve.
