From Manual Construction to AI-Driven Scenario Emergence: Rethinking Catastrophe Risk Modeling
Hang Gao
Sep 2026
Artificial IntelligenceMachine Learning
Abstract
Traditional catastrophe (CAT) risk models rely on costly manual construction to generate extreme weather scenarios, an approach largely unchanged since the 1990s. As climate extremes intensify, this creates mounting challenges to the entire risk transfer chain. This study proposes the TAISE framework, which repurposes AI weather forecasting models to produce coherent extreme weather sequences at a fraction of traditional costs. Through self-iterative generation, the framework produces continuous global atmospheric fields from which extreme events emerge. A proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates an order-of-magnitude reduction in computational cost compared with conventional methods, while capturing temporal continuity and cross-regional correlations absent in snapshot-based approaches. These findings suggest a pathway toward democratising catastrophe risk quantification and enabling dynamic, comprehensive portfolio assessment for insurers, reinsurers, ILS fund managers and public-sector risk managers.
The results indicate that software engineering work practices are chosen opportunistically, adapted and configured to provide value under the constrains imposed by the startup context.
Nicolò Paternoster, Carmine Giardino, M. Unterkalmsteiner et al.· Information and Software Tec...· 394 citations· ⚡54
The possibility of inferring high-dimensional data inference in a model that consists of a prior and an auxiliary differentiable constraint given some additional information is considered, thereby allowing a range of potential applications in adapting models to new domains and tasks.
Alexandros Graikos, Esmeralda S. Whitammer, N. Jojic et al.· Neural Information Processin...· 316 citations· ⚡15
It is proved that any global minimizer of the trajectory balance objective can define a policy that samples exactly from the target distribution, and empirically demonstrate the benefits of the trajectories balance objective for GFlowNet convergence, diversity of generated samples, and robustness to long action sequenc...
Esmeralda S. Whitammer, Moksh Jain, Emmanuel Bengio et al.· Neural Information Processin...· 302 citations· ⚡60
GAOKAO-Bench is introduced, an intuitive benchmark that employs questions from the Chinese GAOKAO examination as test samples, including both subjective and objective questions that contribute a robust evaluation benchmark for future large language models and offers valuable insights into the advantages and limitations...
Xiaotian Zhang, Chun-yan Li, Yi Zong et al.· arXiv.org· 216 citations· ⚡17
This state-of-practice investigation was performed using a literature review followed by a multiple-case study approach and presents how inconsistency between managerial strategies and execution can lead to failure by means of a behavioral framework.
Carmine Giardino, Xiaofeng Wang, P. Abrahamsson· International Conference on...· 175 citations· ⚡19
This work investigates the possibilities of using LLMs in a resume screening setting via a document retrieval framework that simulates job candidate selection and finds that the MTEs are biased, significantly favoring White-associated names in 85% of cases and female-associated names in only 11.1% of cases.
Professor Sherry Turkle’s new book, “Artificial Intimacy,” offers a withering critique of chatbots and the antisocial dynamics she believes they encourage.
