Multimodal risk trajectories reveal heterogeneous paths to dementia

Abstract

Dementia comprises biologically heterogeneous disorders, yet current risk assessment provides limited insight into how subtype-specific risk emerges and diverges before clinical diagnosis. We developed NetMoint, a multimodal framework integrating partially observed plasma proteomic, structural magnetic resonance imaging and cerebral haemodynamic phenotypes to predict individualized risks of Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular dementia (VD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) across 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-year horizons. Among 104,120 UK Biobank participants free of dementia at baseline, NetMoint achieved mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.937, 0.930 and 0.932 for AD, VD and FTD, respectively. The biological determinants of prediction shifted with time, from structural brain vulnerability at shorter horizons towards circulating molecular signatures at longer horizons, with distinct subtype-specific biological profiles. Multi-horizon risk profiling identified distinct temporal trajectories of dementia susceptibility. Among participants who subsequently developed AD, 0.7% followed a persistently very-high-risk trajectory, with predicted risk reaching 53.50% at 20 years, whereas 8.3% of those who developed FTD followed an increasing very-high-risk trajectory, reaching 67.17%. These high-risk trajectories were marked by distinct molecular signatures, with lower TGFB1 characterizing the AD group and higher NDRG1 the FTD group. In an independent ADNI-to-UK Biobank analysis, AD risk prediction remained informative after harmonization to 138 shared features, with an AUC of 0.741 at 20 years. Together, these findings establish a multimodal framework for trajectory-resolved dementia risk stratification, identifying small but high-risk populations within dementia subtypes and linking their divergent risk trajectories to distinct molecular signatures.