This work studies whether verbalized confidence can support risk-controlled deferral in small open-weight language models, evaluating eleven instruction-tuned models from three families on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA with 25,168 local predictions.
Abstract
Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human. We study whether verbalized confidence can support risk-controlled deferral, evaluating eleven instruction-tuned models from three families, 0.5B to 14B parameters, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA with 25,168 local predictions. Three theoretical results delimit what calibration can provide: strictly monotone calibration preserves the risk-coverage frontier and error-detection AUROC; temperature scaling cannot calibrate models whose confidence stays above one half while accuracy falls below it; and a Clopper-Pearson procedure converts a 200-question calibration set into a finite-sample risk certificate under an i.i.d. deployment assumption. Empirically, eight of 22 model-task pairs hit the temperature-scaling infeasibility floor within one percentage point of the predicted bound. Platt scaling reduces ECE to as low as 0.02, yet certified autonomy at a 20% risk budget is granted to only three model-task pairs and to none at 10%. We also identify and repair an answer-ordering artifact in the multiple-choice form of TruthfulQA. Calibration gives confidence semantics; certified deferral determines when small models are safe to use.
LLM benchmark scores can be precise even when the observation protocol does not identify the behavioral property they are intended to measure. In a controlled, solver-grounded setting, we formalize a protocol-level identifiability audit over a finite behavioral policy class: given policies H, observation support O, and estimand $\tau$, we test whether O separates every pair with different $\tau$. The audit requires zero model calls and resolves our diagnostic case: base-only observation collapses seven frozen deterministic policies into one equivalence class; full support yields seven classes and no cross-estimand collisions; every leave-one-out support retains a constructive collision witness. Empirically, both constrained-generation variants have pair-validity 1.0, yet base accuracy and selective-response fidelity diverge - 0.620 versus 0.324 across six balanced oracle-transition directions (cluster-bootstrap 95% CI [0.600, 0.642] vs. [0.304, 0.345]) - and the gap recurs on a second deterministic source (0.646 vs. 0.331). The audit also synthesizes a minimum identifying support $O^*$ for the frozen policy class: two cells instead of the full 36-cell tensor. This case shows how evaluation-design validity can be checked structurally before model inference and why base correctness does not determine intervention-response fidelity.
This work measures the capability that role assumes and finds it lacking under the protocol the role is usually deployed with, one-shot greedy authoring with no test-time reasoning.
Wenhui Chen, Jianlin Chen, Ziyao Lin et al.· 0 citations
ConfidenceBench, a calibration benchmark that evaluates verbalized confidence estimates in 15 frontier LLMs using the Brier score, a proper scoring rule that incentivises truthful probability reporting shows that verbalized confidence calibration is a distinct and practically important axis of LLM reliability, complementary to standard accuracy-based evaluation.
M. ffrench-Constant, Daniel Yang, Xinmeng Huang et al.· 1 citation· ⚡1
Large language models are increasingly deployed on local hardware for privacy, cost, and accessibility reasons. Yet many evaluations emphasize accuracy while fewer quantify local runtime and energy, characterize failure modes, or apply paired statistical comparisons under controlled conditions. This paper presents a controlled, documented procedure for evaluating locally hosted LLMs on mathematical reasoning. It combines fixed inference settings, hierarchical answer extraction and verification, explicit failure-mode classification, and per-question resource measurement, and reports accuracy with paired significance tests and effect sizes. We demonstrate it in a preliminary study of three compact open-weight models under five billion parameters, Gemma3:4b (Google), Phi3:3.8b (Microsoft), and Qwen3:4b (Alibaba), across datasets spanning Grade 8 Math, Calculus I, and Advanced Probability and Statistics. All models ran through the same local inference server on one workstation, using a shared prompt template, controlled settings, and a matched question set per dataset. No single model dominates. Qwen3:4b is most accurate on two datasets and Gemma3:4b on Calculus I, yet Gemma3:4b returns roughly three times more correct answers per watt-hour than Qwen3:4b on every dataset while generating far fewer output tokens; Qwen3:4b requires substantially more generation time, energy, and output per question. Phi3:3.8b is substantially less accurate on all three datasets; its low extraction-failure rate indicates incorrect answers rather than unparsed output, though we caveat possible prompt-format effects. These preliminary findings indicate that accuracy alone is an insufficient basis for selecting a local model.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in question answering (QA) systems, yet they may generate hallucinated or misaligned responses without reliable confidence estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) offers a natural basis for selective answering, where a system answers only when its prediction is deemed reliable and abstains otherwise. However, existing uncertainty scores for LLMs are often heuristic: a threshold chosen on such scores does not, by itself, provide statistical guarantees on the error rate among accepted answers. We propose CIC, a confidence-interval-based calibration framework that converts arbitrary uncertainty scores into risk-controlled selective answering rules. Given a held-out calibration set, CIC evaluates each generated response using an application-specific alignment criterion and associates it with an uncertainty score and a binary error label. For each candidate uncertainty threshold, CIC estimates the acceptance-conditioned error rate and constructs a high-probability upper confidence bound using either Hoeffding-style or Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals. It then selects the largest threshold whose upper bound is below a user-specified risk level $\alpha$, thereby maximizing the answering rate subject to a finite-sample reliability constraint. Under exchangeability, CIC guarantees with probability at least $1-\delta$ that the selected threshold, if non-null, controls the error rate among accepted answers at level $\alpha$. We evaluate CIC on both closed-ended and open-ended QA benchmarks across seven LLMs and multiple uncertainty estimators. Experimental results show that CIC consistently achieves valid risk control while retaining strong answering efficiency, providing a practical and statistically grounded mechanism for deploying LLMs in reliability-sensitive QA workflows.
A probe corpus of 42 retracted, fraudulent, and pseudoscientific papers is paired with a methodology for eliciting and scoring single-shot model engagement with each paper's framing, indicating an urgent need for guardrail infrastructure for scientific deployment of language models.