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Open access 2026

Interannual Glacier Variability and Accelerated Albedo Decline in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: Multidecadal Remote Sensing Insights (1986–2024)

Mountain glaciers are key indicators of climate change, with their retreat and surface albedo variations exerting significant impacts on regional water resources and surface energy balance. This study introduces an innovative machine-learning framework that combines high-resolution Landsat imagery with moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer-derived albedo products to enable precise annual glacier boundary extraction and comprehensive assessment of long-term glacier surface albedo dynamics. Applying this approach to the Qilian Mountains National Park (QMNP), we achieve a boundary delineation accuracy of 98.65%, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.98, outperforming the conventional methods and exhibiting consistency exceeding 90% when benchmarked against the Randolph Glacier Inventory V7.0 dataset. Since 1986, QMNP glaciers have undergone significant retreat, losing 686.27 km2 (40.03%) of their total area, with the mean glacier size decreasing from 0.81 to 0.65 km2, and over 500 small- to medium-sized glaciers (≤1 km2) disappearing entirely. Notably, a pronounced decline in glacier surface albedo has been observed since 2019, coinciding with the rapid expansion of debris-covered glaciers, which have surged by more than 12-fold since 1986. Our analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between air temperature and both glacier extent and surface albedo, highlighting air temperature as the dominant driver of glacier retreat and albedo degradation. In contrast, the influence of precipitation is weaker and more variable, suggesting a more complex role in glacier mass balance. These findings provide critical insights into glacier–climate interactions and their cascading effects on hydrological systems, offering a transferable framework for global assessments of glacier change and climate responses.

Xiaoyang Zhao, Nai'’ang Wang, Nana Zhai · 0 citations
Review

Measuring Annual Geodetic Mass Balance of Brewster Glacier Using 'Structure-from-Motion' Photogrammetry: Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change Attribution

Alpine glaciers are key indicators of climate change due to their high sensitivity to small variations in temperature and precipitation. As global temperatures rise, glaciers have declined rapidly, highlighting one of the negative impacts of anthropogenic climate change. For this reason, monitoring glaciers is essential to understand the extent of ice loss and its broader environmental, cultural, and socioeconomic impacts. Both global and regional studies show that New Zealand glaciers are undergoing accelerating mass loss. Continuing the measuring of glacier change, this thesis quantifies recent mass balance at Brewster Glacier using structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry on oblique photographs collected during end-of-summer snowline surveys in 2023, 2024, and 2025, all together with precise image locations. In doing so, methodological choices were applied by deriving a new SfM workflow. Oblique imagery were processed in Agisoft Metashape to generate co-aligned, georeferenced 3D dense point clouds, digital elevation models (DEMs), and orthomosaics. Surface elevation change was calculated using two independent methods: cloud-to-cloud comparison using the Multiscale Model-to-Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2) algorithm and the DEM differencing method. Volume change was converted to geodetic mass balance using both methods for cross-validation. The uncertainty in vertical change was quantified using stable snow-and ice-free bedrock surrounding the glacier, with the Normalised Median Absolute Deviation (NMAD). The DEM-derived mass balance was applied to an attribution framework to assess the role of anthropogenic climate change. For the period 2023–2024, geodetic mass balance results were −2.07 ±0.14 m w.e. (M3C2) and −2.07 ±0.18 m w.e. (DEM differencing). Event attribution methods show that this negative mass balance was at least 90 times more likely to occur in the current climate than without anthropogenic climate change. For the period 2024–2025, mass balance was −1.08 ±0.15 m w.e. (M3C2) and −1.13 ±0.15 m w.e. (DEM differencing), which was at least 15 times more likely to occur under the current climate. These findings indicate that anthropogenic forcing has shifted the probability distribution of mass balance towards more negative outcomes.

Felix Silva Levio · 0 citations
Open access Jul 2026

Changes in Glaciers and Their Runoff in the Shule River Basin of the Qilian Mountains from 1980 to 2100 Based on Remote Sensing Data and Modeling

Glaciers are vital freshwater resources in some arid regions, where glacier meltwater sustains downstream ecosystems, land-use activities and regional water security. However, systematic investigations of long-term glacier change and its hydrological implications remain limited in the Shule River Basin (SRB) of the Qilian Mountains, China. Our study quantified spatiotemporal glacier changes and their meltwater in the SRB from 1980 to 2100 by integrating Landsat imagery, digital elevation models, meteorological and hydrological data, existing glacier datasets and modeling. In 2025, 627 glaciers covering ~437.75 ± 35.46 km2 were identified in the SRB, representing a shrinkage of 213.2 km2 (mean 4.74 km2 a−1) from 1980 to 2025. The glacier surface elevation change rate reached −0.60 m a−1 during 2000–2014, with accelerated thinning after 2010. The mean glacier mass balance was −343.63 mm w.e. a−1 during 1970–2023 and glacier meltwater contributed an average of 25.1% to basin runoff during 2008–2021, peaking at 36.71% in 2011. Future projections under the SSP-119, SSP-245 and SSP-585 scenarios indicate continued glacier retreat, with peak glacier meltwater expected between 2024 and 2045. These findings highlight the declining hydrological regulatory capacity of glaciers and provide scientific support for sustainable land–water management and ecosystem resilience in glacier-fed arid basins.

Weijin Guan, Caidi Gao, Zihao Zhang et al. · 0 citations
Open access Jul 2026

Quantifying altimetric and volumetric changes of the Belvedere Glacier (2009–2023) using Pleiades and Pleiades Neo data

Abstract. The study presents a detailed photogrammetric analysis of the evolution of the Belvedere Glacier over the periods 2009–2017 and 2017–2023, with particular focus on the impact of the debris flow triggered by the flood event of August 27, 2023. High-resolution Pléiades and Pléiades Neo satellite imagery was used to generate point clouds and Digital Elevation Models, enabling the quantification of altimetric and volumetric changes and a detailed assessment of the morphological modifications caused by the debris flow. The results show a recent significant glacier retreat, with an average annual volume loss of 2.3 × 10⁶ m³/year between 2009 and 2017, increasing to 2.7 × 10⁶ m³/year between 2017 and 2023. The 2023 debris flow produced marked morphological changes, including the formation of two accumulation zones on the western tongue and the development of two erosional channels approximately 4–5 meters deep. These channels resulted from the new course of the Castelfranco Stream, which incised directly into the glacier surface. Overall, the findings confirm trends reported in previous studies on the Belvedere Glacier and other Alpine glaciers, highlighting the importance and advantages of satellite-based monitoring for assessing the impacts of climate change and extreme events on glacier dynamics.

F. Ioli, Luca Cerina, Alberto Cina et al. · 0 citations