Burdens of Malignant Melanoma and Projections for 2050 in Asia: Findings from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study
TL;DR
Asia faces a dual challenge: rising incidence and a progressive eastward/southward burden shift to lower‑SDI countries; effective responses require equitable, context-specific strategies combining sun‑safety campaigns, early detection, advanced diagnostics, and affordable treatments across socioeconomic strata.
Abstract
Background Malignant melanoma(MM) is a significant global health concern, with increasing incidence worldwide. However, comprehensive assessments of its burden in Asia remain limited. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) data for 2023, an analysis was conducted on the disease burden of MM across 48 countries in Asia from 1990 to 2023. The trends in the disease burden of MM were assessed using the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC). Furthermore, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the future burden of MM to 2050. Results From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased across most of Asia, with the most pronounced positive EAPC values observed in low- and middle-SDI regions. In contrast, high-SDI areas exhibited stable incidence rates but declining mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates. The epicenter of the burden shifted from affluent nations to rapidly developing economies; by 2023, East Asia reported the highest absolute case numbers and prevalence. The age distribution has shifted from the 45–64 age group to those aged 65 years and older, with individuals aged 75 and above dominating both prevalence and mortality rates in East Asia. Key drivers of these trends include cumulative UV exposure, lifestyle changes, and disparities in diagnosis and treatment. The BAPC forecasts for East Asia from 2024 to 2050 predict continued increases in ASIR and prevalence, stabilization of mortality rates, and modest declines in DALYs; however, uncertainty intervals widen as the forecast horizon extends. Conclusion Asia faces a dual challenge: rising incidence and a progressive eastward/southward burden shift to lower‑SDI countries. Effective responses require equitable, context‑specific strategies combining sun‑safety campaigns, early detection, advanced diagnostics, and affordable treatments across socioeconomic strata. Strengthening prevention, healthcare infrastructure, and surveillance is essential to reduce the long‑term human and economic impact of melanoma in the region.