Lessons learned from the root and crown rot associated with Neopestalotiopsis rosae epidemics in Mexican strawberry production systems: A retrospective analysis based on data science

Abstract

Background : The emergence of Neopestalotiopsis rosae , causing root rot, crown rot, and leaf spot of strawberry, resulted in a major phytosanitary crisis in Mexico, with yield losses reaching 70%. This study reconstructs how growers in central Mexico responded to and managed the epidemic, synthesizing survey data from the 2019–2020, 2021–2022, and 2022–2023 growing seasons. Methods : Observational data from regional surveys of commercial fields, plant-propagation fields, and nurseries were integrated and analyzed using linear discriminant analysis with sequential feature selection, linear mixed-effects models (meta-analysis), and spatial statistics (Getis-Ord Gi* and kernel density estimation). This combination established a rapid, reproducible framework for plant disease epidemiology in production systems requiring immediate, evidence-based responses, enabling pattern detection across successive epidemic stages despite heterogeneous data sources. Results : Nurseries, particularly bare-root propagation systems, were identified as a primary source of N. rosae inoculum into commercial fields. Symptomatic plants harboring multiple co-occurring fungal and oomycete genera reached mortality of up to 40%, versus below 10% with a single genus. Strawberry variety factor was the dominant driver of mortality (random-effect variance = 0.69; marginal R 2 = 0.13, conditional R 2 = 0.42), triggering a shift from high-susceptibility to more tolerant varieties. In Tangancícuaro, the only site surveyed across all three seasons, mortality fell from severe early levels to below 5% by 2022–2023, tracking the transition from reactive interventions toward targeted, data-based management. Conclusions : Integrating data science and meta-analysis converted multi-year, multi-source observational data into actionable knowledge. Two priorities emerged directly: phytosanitary certification of bare-root and plug plants as the critical control point, and replacement of highly susceptible cultivars (e.g., ‘Festival’, ‘Camino Real’, ‘Albion’) with less-susceptible ones (e.g. ‘Adelanto’, ‘Victor’). This transferable framework supports epidemic management in short-cycle, high-risk cropping systems when classical experimental approaches are not yet feasible.