Bridging Individual-Tree and Stand-Scale Aboveground Biomass Estimation for Chinese Fir Using LiDAR and Machine Learning

Abstract

The accurate estimation of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) typically relies on extensive field surveys, which are highly time-consuming and cost-prohibitive. While unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) provides ultra-high point densities capable of reliable individual-tree analysis, its limited flight coverage restricts large-scale applications. Conversely, regional airborne laser scanning (ALS) offers broad spatial coverage, but its relatively low point cloud density makes individual-tree level analysis unreliable. To bridge this scale and data gap, this study develops a scale-consistent framework that integrates UAV-LiDAR, three-dimensional simulation, multisource remote sensing, and machine learning for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) plantation AGB estimation. High-density UAV-LiDAR data were first used to construct individual-tree AGB models, and the predicted tree-level biomass was aggregated to generate spatially representative “agent plots” for stand-scale modeling. A three-dimensional (3D) radiative transfer simulation framework was further employed to reproduce airborne LiDAR observations under different point densities, enabling the evaluation of structural information loss caused by LiDAR sparsity. Structural features derived from simulated LiDAR and spectral information from Sentinel-2 imagery were integrated using the Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network (TabPFN). Model reliability was assessed through 10-fold spatial block cross-validation and Monte Carlo simulations, which quantified spatial generalization and uncertainty propagation from individual-tree estimation to stand-level prediction. Feature interpretation using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) revealed that the LiDAR-derived vertical canopy structure provided the primary constraints for biomass estimation, whereas Sentinel-2 shortwave infrared features supplied complementary information related to canopy conditions. The optimal TabPFN model achieved a stand-level accuracy of R2 = 0.88 and RMSE = 9.23 Mg·ha−1 using LiDAR combined with Sentinel-2 data. Uncertainty analysis further demonstrated the robustness of the proposed framework under propagated errors, highlighting its potential for scalable and reliable forest biomass estimation in data-limited subtropical ecosystems.