Given $[0,1]$-valued random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ such that $\mathbb{E}[X_i | X_1,\dots,X_{i-1}]= \mu$ for all $i$, we propose a new nonasymptotic confidence interval for $\mu$ that is obtained by inverting terminal e-values generated by a novel betting strategy. When the data are iid, its limiting width matches that of the central limit theorem (``Gaussian-efficient''), finally surpassing the inefficient limits of previous betting intervals. Our main conceptual advance involves designing betting fractions that track the conditional rejection probability of the most powerful terminal test in a limiting Gaussian experiment. When one predictable variance estimator is shared across candidate means, the deterministic inversion is an interval for every data sequence and its two endpoints can be found easily. The width can be improved further with external randomization. In simulations, our method yields the tightest intervals to date; for every distribution tested and all sufficiently large $n$, our deterministic version beats STaR-Bets and is competitive with Gaffke, while the randomized improvement beats both. It thus combines finite-sample validity under martingale dependence, easy endpoint computation, Gaussian-efficient inference for iid data, and excellent empirical performance. We also extend the construction and its efficiency theory to sampling without replacement, where it again achieves state-of-the-art empirical performance.
Let $X = (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$ be a random vector from any Borel probability law on $\mathbb{R}_+^n$. We revisit the problem of deriving a lower confidence bound (LCB) on a scalar parameter of that law. We recast classical work, beginning with Buehler, in purely probabilistic terms to form a more accessible and extensible framework. We then specialize the framework to the case where the components of $X$ are independent. In this context, we prove that Gaffke's bound is Buehler optimal for the order that it induces with respect to the maximum marginal mean parameter: $max_{i \in [n]} E_Q[X_i]$, which reduces to the common mean when the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed. That is to say, no other valid LCB that orders samples in the same way as Gaffke's bound can improve on it with respect to this parameter.
Given observations $\mathbf x=(x_1,\dots,x_n)$, Gaffke (2005) defined \[ K_n(\mathbf x)=\mathbb{P}_{\mathbf D}\!\left\{\sum_{i=1}^n x_iD_i\le 1\right\}, \qquad (D_0,D_1,\ldots,D_n)\sim\mathrm{Dirichlet}(1,\ldots,1), \] and conjectured that it is a $p$-value whenever the inputs are independent e-values. Recently, Vlassis and Thomas (2026) proved this conjecture. Inverting the tests for observations in $[0,1]$ gives the confidence interval studied by Learned-Miller and Thomas (2020), which reduces to Clopper--Pearson for Bernoulli data. We give a finite- and large-sample account of Gaffke's test and interval. First, for every $\mathbf x\in[0,\infty)^n$ and every elementary symmetric polynomial $e_k$, \( K_n(\mathbf x)e_k(\mathbf x)\le {n\choose k}, \) so the Gaffke $p$-value never larger than the SymPol $p$-value of Ming et al. (2026). However, Gaffke's p-value is inadmissible. For $n=2$, we construct a valid rule that is strictly smaller on mixed configurations and is the unique admissible rule that dominates $K_2$. A neutral-face extension proves inadmissibility of $K_n$ for every $n\ge2$. If one independent uniform random variable is allowed, there is an even simpler full-dimensional improvement: on the upper orthant, where $K_n(\mathbf x)=1/\prod_i x_i$, replace it by $U/\prod_i x_i$. The equal-tail Gaffke confidence interval $I_n$ is nevertheless first-order asymptotically efficient: for iid observations on $[0,1]$ with unknown variance $\sigma^2>0$, \[ \sqrt n\,\operatorname{Width}(I_n)\longrightarrow 2\sigma z_{1-\alpha/2}\qquad\text{almost surely}. \] Our simulations also find that, among a variety of bounded-mean intervals considered, the Gaffke interval is the shortest, including comparisons with a recent empirical Berry--Esseen procedure having the same first-order Gaussian target.
Jiahao Ming, Aaditya Ramdas, Yi Shen et al.· 4 citations· ⚡1
Consider $n$ independent, non-negative, mean at most one random variables, $X_1,X_2,\ldots$. We show the following bound on the probability of their sum exceeding a threshold $t$: \[ \mathbb{P}\left[\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\ge t\right] \leq 1-\left(1-\frac{1}{t}\right)^n \text{ for all } t\ge 2n+1 \,. \] To prove this, we consider a relaxed optimization problem over a set of sequences of ordered, but non-independent random variables. This allows us to reformulate it recursively as dynamic programming problem. The bound becomes an equality for the binary i.i.d.~random variables satisfying $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=0\right]= 1-\frac{1}{t}$ and $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=t\right]=\frac{1}{t}$, which remains the maximizer in the relaxed problem.
We develop an efficient online algorithm to sample a sequence of discrete random variables using an entropy source of i.i.d. fair coin flips, in a standard model of real computation where real-valued probabilities are represented by rational approximations. For any sequence $F_1, F_2, \dots$ of probability distributions, our sampler generates $n$ outputs $X_1 \sim F_1, \dots, X_n \sim F_n$ using at most $\mathbb{E}\left[H(F_1) +\dots + H(F_n)\right] + O(\log n)$ coin flips in expectation while carrying $O(\log n)$ bits of persistent space, where $H$ is the Shannon entropy. Under standard assumptions, we prove that the space used by our sampler to achieve this information-theoretically optimal entropy rate is asymptotically optimal. The key idea is to replace the global arithmetic-decoding sampling scheme of Han and Hoshi (1997) with a local discrete uniform state, yielding an exponential reduction in space for a given entropy loss. Our approach applies to distributions with irrational probabilities and countably infinite supports, generalizing recent randomness-recycling methods beyond finite rational distributions with bounded denominator.
Thomas L. Draper, David G. Harris, Feras A. Saad· 1 citation
Let $M_n$ be an $n\times n$ matrix with independent uniform sign entries. We prove that there exist absolute constants $C,c>0$ such that, for all sufficiently large $n$, \[ \mathbb{P}\!\left( \left|\operatorname{Per}(M_n)\right| \ge e^{-Cn}\sqrt{n!} \right) \ge 1-n^{-c}. \] Our proof tracks the total squared permanent of minors under successive row exposure. Up to $k=\lfloor n/2\rfloor$, the total squared permanent grows deterministically via the Boolean lattice up-operator; for larger $k$, the row exposure increments are governed by positive semidefinite Rademacher quadratic forms. Therefore, we confirms the exponential scale lower bound suggested by Tao and Vu.
We give explicit complex polynomials $P,Q$ in three independent standard real Gaussian variables such that \[ {\mathbb E}(P^m)=0,\qquad {\mathbb E}(QP^m)=m!\neq0 \] for every $m\geq1$. In natural complex linear coordinates, $P$ has five terms and total degree $4$. Hence the Gaussian Moments Conjecture is false in every dimension $n\geq3$. We also give a six-term cubic example in four variables, which was found first and already proves failure for every $n\geq4$. Both examples follow from the same coefficient identity. The search was prompted by Levent Alp\"oge's public announcement of an explicit three-dimensional counterexample to the Jacobian Conjecture. Although the main theorem of Derksen, van den Essen, and Zhao is stated globally in dimension, its proof has fixed-dimensional content: a noninvertible cubic-homogeneous Keller map in $r$ variables forces the failure of ${\mathrm GMC}(2r)$. Tracking a standard Bass--Connell--Wright reduction of the announced map gives a conservative cubic-homogeneous counterexample in $79$ variables, and hence a route-based failure of ${\mathrm GMC}(158)$. That route is nonconstructive at the final Gaussian step and does not furnish explicit polynomials $P,Q$. The much smaller explicit failures in dimensions $4$ and $3$ below were not derived from the announced Jacobian map.