Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatility in India

Abstract

Exchange rate volatility is an important macroeconomic issue that influences international trade, investment, inflation, financial stability, and sustainable economic growth. The present study examines the volatility and movement of the Indian Rupee against selected major foreign currencies during 2025 and assesses its implications for economic stability and sustainable development in India. The study focuses on the US Dollar, Euro, Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen, and UAE Dirham, considering their importance in India's international trade and financial transactions. A descriptive and analytical research design was adopted using secondary data comprising daily exchange rate observations for the period from January to December 2025. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistical measures, including mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Case processing and normality tests were also conducted to assess the completeness and distributional characteristics of the exchange rate data. The findings indicate an overall upward movement in most selected exchange rates against the Indian Rupee during the study period, reflecting depreciation of the Rupee. The extent of volatility varied across currencies and months. The US Dollar and Euro exhibited comparatively higher fluctuations, while the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen showed relatively lower or moderate volatility. The UAE Dirham recorded moderate fluctuations with an overall upward trend. Variations in skewness and kurtosis indicate asymmetric distributions and occasional unusual movements. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests confirmed that the exchange rate series were not normally distributed, indicating irregular patterns of currency movements. The study highlights the importance of effective exchange rate monitoring, currency-risk management, hedging practices, adequate foreign exchange reserves, and sound macroeconomic policies. Strengthening these measures can help reduce the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility and contribute to greater economic stability and sustainable economic growth in India.