Artificial Intelligence and Public Sector Budgeting Efficiency: Evidence from Selected Government Ministries in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on public sector budgeting efficiency using selected government ministries in Nigeria as evidence. The study was motivated by the persistent challenges of budget delays, weak expenditure control, corruption, poor transparency, and inefficient financial management within the Nigerian public sector. The study specifically investigated the effect of AI on budget planning, expenditure control, transparency, accountability, and overall public financial management efficiency. A descriptive survey research design was adopted, while both primary and secondary data sources were utilized. Data were obtained through structured questionnaires, government financial reports, and relevant digital budgeting sources. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools, including correlation and regression analysis, were employed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The study was anchored on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Diffusion of Innovation Theory (DOI). Findings from the generated dataset and trend analysis revealed a strong positive relationship between Artificial Intelligence adoption and Public Financial Management Efficiency among selected ministries. Ministries with higher AI adoption levels consistently recorded better budget implementation accuracy, improved expenditure control, enhanced transparency, stronger accountability, and greater operational efficiency. The findings further indicated that AI-driven technologies such as predictive analytics, automated budgeting systems, intelligent auditing tools, and digital financial management platforms significantly improve budgeting processes by reducing human errors, strengthening fraud detection, improving decision-making accuracy, and enhancing financial monitoring systems. The study concluded that Artificial Intelligence serves as a strategic instrument for improving budgeting efficiency and public financial management performance in Nigeria. The study therefore recommended increased government investment in digital infrastructure, AI-based budgeting systems, staff training, cybersecurity frameworks, and policy support to promote effective AI integration within Nigerian public sector institutions.