Beyond Human Error: How Road Design and Urban Environmental Factors Drive Major Accidents in Jakarta
Abstract
Jakarta, Indonesia's capital and a major megacity, faces significant road safety challenges due to its dense population, high mobility, and complex urban environment. While human error is often cited as the primary cause of traffic accidents, growing evidence suggests that environmental factors—such as road design, land use, and weather conditions—also play a critical role. This study examines the influence of these factors on major road accidents, defined as those resulting in serious injuries or fatalities, in Jakarta from 2019 to 2023. Using a binary logistic regression model and a dataset of over 19,000 accidents across 4,654 road segments, this research identifies key predictors of accident severity. The findings reveal that weekends, peak traffic hours, adverse weather, and specific road types (e.g., one-way four-lane roads) significantly increase the likelihood of major accidents. Furthermore, industrial land use emerges as a high-risk factor, while government and public service zones are associated with reduced accident risks. These results highlight the urgent need to integrate environmental factors into urban road safety strategies. The study offers actionable insights for policymakers and urban planners, including recommendations for road design improvements, better land use planning, and targeted traffic enforcement. While focused on Jakarta, the findings provide valuable lessons for other rapidly urbanising cities worldwide, particularly in developing regions where similar challenges persist.