Aug 2026· PLoS ONE· Vol 21, pp. e0357153· 0 citations· 50 references
Medicine
Abstract
Ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) exhibits exceptional mechanical properties and durability. However, its compressive strength is highly dependent on complex mix design parameters. While traditional experimental techniques and regression-based models are commonly used to evaluate UHPC compressive strength, machine learning approaches offer an efficient alternative for capturing complex nonlinear relationships. This study develops a machine learning–based framework to predict the compressive strength of UHPC and compares the predictive performance of five advanced algorithms: Extremely Randomized Trees (ER), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). A comprehensive experimental database was utilized for training and validation purposes. Among the evaluated models, CatBoost achieved the best predictive performance, with a coefficient of determination (R²) exceeding 0.90, a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 4.5 MPa, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately 3.6 MPa. However, subgroup residual analysis showed that the prediction reliability was not uniform across the full strength range. In particular, mixtures with compressive strength ≥180 MPa exhibited larger errors and systematic underprediction, mainly due to the limited number of ultra-high-strength samples in the compiled database. Therefore, the model is more reliable within well-represented strength ranges, while predictions in the ultra-high-strength region should be interpreted with caution. SHAP-based analysis, feature dependency analysis, and both Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) were employed. These explainable AI techniques identified key variables and quantified their contributions to the compressive strength of UHPC. The findings demonstrate that interpretable machine learning can support preliminary UHPC mixture assessment by combining predictive performance with physically meaningful insights.
Ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) offers exceptional mechanical and durability properties but often relies on quartz powder, raising sustainability and occupational health concerns. This study introduces an integrated experimental-computational framework for predicting the compressive strength of UHPC and developing quartz-free mixtures. Experimentally, the effects of mixing sequence, sand characteristics, superplasticizer chemistry, and curing regime were investigated, leading to a quartz-free UHPC achieving 136 MPa at 28 days under heat-curing. A dataset of 550 UHPC compressive strength records was compiled, incorporating quantitative mix proportions and categorical variables (cement type, superplasticizer base, fiber type, and specimen geometry). Sixty-three machine learning models from tree-based, boosting, and support vector machine families were optimized using seven meta-heuristic algorithms. The Particle Swarm Optimization-tuned XGBoost model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.897, RMSE = 7.63 MPa), followed by the Differential Evolution-optimized Random Forest (R2 = 0.867, RMSE = 8.70 MPa). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified curing age as the most influential predictor after optimization. The proposed framework enables accurate and interpretable UHPC strength prediction and supports the design of safer and more sustainable quartz-free UHPC with reduced experimental effort.
Mohamed Ayman, Amr Elnemr· Scientific Reports· 0 citations
The compressive strength of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including material composition, mixture proportion parameters, and curing regime. Conventional empirical methods are therefore insufficient to accurately characterize the highly nonlinear relationships involved. To improve the prediction accuracy of UHPC compressive strength and to achieve mixture proportion optimization that simultaneously considers mechanical performance, economic efficiency, and environmental impact, this study developed random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models based on 810 publicly available UHPC experimental datasets. Model performance was evaluated using R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. To enhance the robustness of model validation, repeated K-fold cross-validation, sensitivity analysis with different random seed splits, and benchmark model comparisons were further introduced. The results indicate that the XGBoost model achieved superior predictive performance on both the test set and robustness validation, with test-set R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 0.9604, 7.77, 5.58, and 4.80, respectively. The model was further interpreted using SHAP, PDP, and ICE methods, and the results revealed that curing age, fiber content, silica fume content, and water-to-binder ratio were important variables affecting the compressive strength of UHPC. Furthermore, XGBoost was used as a surrogate model and coupled with NSGA-II and TOPSIS methods for multi-objective optimization. Under the constraints of compressive strength, water-to-binder ratio, superplasticizer-to-binder ratio, and absolute volume, a computationally recommended UHPC mixture proportion balancing strength, cost, and carbon emissions was obtained. This study provides a reproducible machine-learning-assisted approach for UHPC compressive strength prediction and low-carbon, cost-effective mixture proportion design.
Rong Li, Teng Zhou, Siyu Lu et al.· Applied Sciences· 0 citations
Accurate prediction of concrete compressive strength is essential for effective mix design, quality control, and structural performance assessment. Conventional empirical models often exhibit limited accuracy due to the complex and nonlinear interactions among concrete constituents.
This study investigates the applicability of several machine learning models for predicting the compressive strength of concrete using a publicly available experimental dataset comprising 1030 concrete mixtures. Linear regression was adopted as a baseline model and compared with support vector regression, random forest regression, and artificial neural networks.
The performance of machine learning models was meticulously assessed using the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. Additionally, the models underwent five-fold cross-validation to evaluate their robustness and generalization capabilities. The results unambiguously demonstrate that machine learning models significantly outperform linear regression models.
Cross-validation results confirm the stability and reliability of the developed models. Feature importance analysis reveals that curing age and cement content are the most influential parameters affecting compressive strength, followed by water content, which is consistent with established concrete material behavior. The findings demonstrate that machine learning models, particularly random forest regression, can serve as effective supporting tools for preliminary concrete mix design and performance evaluation.
S. Rouabah· ITEGAM- Journal of Engineeri...· 0 citations
Ultra-High-Performance Concrete (UHPC) is a state-of-the-art concrete technology with exceptional qualities, including high compressive strength (CS) and durability. The CS, an essential property of UHPC, is determined through costly, time-consuming studies that require large amounts of material. To overcome these constraints, this work aimed to estimate the CS of UHPC using a range of single- and hybrid-machine learning (ML) methods. For this, five ML models, including Decision Tree (DT), Gradient Boosting (GB), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), CatBoost, and a stacking Ensemble model combining these base models, were developed. The input space includes cement, silica fume, slag, fly ash, quartz powder, limestone powder, nano-silica, water, fine and coarse aggregate, fiber, superplasticizer, temperature, relative humidity, and age. The findings demonstrate that the Ensemble model achieved the best overall predictive performance across 20 Monte Carlo simulations, with a mean RMSE of 6.751 ± 0.316 MPa, MAE of 4.943 ± 0.219 MPa, and R² of 0.972 ± 0.002. According to the findings of 1D, 2D partial dependence plot (PDP), and SHAP analyses, age, cement, silica fume, water, sand, fiber, and superplasticizer were the primary variables influencing UHPC's CS.
May Huu Nguyen, Hai-Van Thi Mai, Ho-Ang Son· Journal of Science and Trans...· 0 citations
Among all ML models, eXtreme gradient boosting demonstrated superior predictive performance, effectively capturing the nonlinear and multivariate interactions governing confinement effectiveness.
Javad Shayanfar, J. Barros· Journal of Composites Scienc...· 0 citations
A comparative framework evaluating nine regression algorithms using the UCI Concrete Compressive Strength dataset, jointly integrating correlation-corrected statistical validation, multi-model Bayesian optimization, and domain-informed feature engineering with SHAP interpretation, rarely combined in prior concrete-strength studies.
Musthafa 'Abduh Fakhruddin, Sri Winarno, Acun Kardianawati· IDEALIS : InDonEsiA journaL...· 0 citations