The Ripple Effect of Logistics Performance: A Study on the Impact of Logistics Efficiency in “Belt and Road” Countries on China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce Exports Based on Multisource Data Fusion

Abstract

Based on panel data from 2013 to 2023, this study integrates the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index with China’s cross-border e-commerce export data through a multi-source data fusion framework and constructs an extended trade gravity model for empirical analysis. As modern cross-border logistics increasingly relies on electromagnetic-enabled communication infrastructures, wireless information transmission, and intelligent tracking technologies to support real-time cargo visibility and digital connectivity, understanding the role of logistics performance has become essential for sustainable international trade. The results show that improvements in logistics performance in “Belt and Road” countries significantly promote China’s cross-border e-commerce exports, although the magnitude of this effect is moderated by geographic distance and institutional factors. Further decomposition reveals that customs clearance efficiency and cargo traceability constitute the primary driving mechanisms, jointly accounting for more than two-thirds of the overall effect, whereas the contribution of international transportation convenience is comparatively weaker due to differences between conventional logistics indicators and e-commerce transport modes. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promotion effect is stronger in Maritime Silk Road countries, middle- and low-income economies, and regions with higher digital penetration. By combining multi-source data integration with intelligent logistics analysis, this study provides refined empirical evidence for understanding international trade facilitation and offers valuable references for overseas market selection, logistics infrastructure optimization, and data-driven decision-making in digitally interconnected logistics systems.