Trump 2.0 and global stock dynamics: a decomposed view of US trade partners' market connectedness

Abstract

We aim to elucidate the decomposed connectedness among the financial markets of the top five US trade partners, i.e. Mexico, Canada, China, Taiwan and Germany. It also intends to explore the opportunity for risk mitigation through diversification for a cross-country portfolio. The novel R2 decomposed connectedness model has been employed to delve into the contemporaneous and lagged connectedness among the stock markets of the examined economies. The daily observation from November 6, 2024, to October 1, 2025, has been used for the empirical investigation. The study reveals that the total connectedness between the markets is dynamic over time and responsive to trade uncertainties originating from Trump 2.0, and that contemporaneous effects were found to be more dominant than lagged effects. In addition, study results reveal that Germany is the main net transmitter of shock, whereas Taiwan is the main net receiver of shock. The study also indicates the Mexican market may be considered in the portfolio to mitigate the risks due to the least recipient/transmission of the shock among the examined markets. The study results have several noteworthy practical implications for financial decision-making. It is valuable for investors as they can incorporate connectedness dynamics revealed by the study for identifying a suitable market for asset allocation. It provides a decomposed assessment of financial market connectedness of the key trade partners of the United States in the context of Trump 2.0, employing a novel decomposed connectedness model.