A Practical Machine Learning Model for Predicting Neoadjuvant Response in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer
TL;DR
ML applied to routinely available clinicopathologic and baseline MRI variables showed promising ability to predict pCR before treatment initiation in HER2-positive BC, and may support pre-treatment clinical risk assessment using information already generated during routine clinical assessment.
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is an important prognostic marker in HER2-positive breast cancer (BC). However, reliable pre-treatment predictors based on routinely available clinical data remain limited. This study evaluated whether clinicopathologic and baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) variables could predict NAC response using classical machine learning (ML) approaches. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 112 patients with HER2-positive BC treated with NAC was analysed, including 57 patients who achieved pCR and 55 who did not. Fourteen pre-treatment variables were evaluated, including hormone receptor (HR) status, tumour grade, ER and PR expression, Ki67, nodal status, age, and baseline MRI characteristics. Seventy ML classifiers were compared using a fully nested leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) framework. Performance was assessed using accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Cohen’s kappa, sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score. Results: A support vector machine (SVM) with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel achieved the highest observed accuracy (82.1%) among the 70 evaluated classifiers. The corresponding AUROC was 83.3%, Cohen’s kappa was 64.2%, and sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score were 87.7%, 76.4%, and 83.3%, respectively. HR-related variables, particularly PR and ER expression, together with Ki67 and baseline MRI features, ranked among the most influential predictors. Despite relying exclusively on routinely available pre-treatment variables, the model demonstrated meaningful predictive performance. Conclusions: ML applied to routinely available clinicopathologic and baseline MRI variables showed promising ability to predict pCR before treatment initiation in HER2-positive BC. The proposed approach may support pre-treatment clinical risk assessment using information already generated during routine clinical assessment. Nevertheless, prospective multicentre external validation, calibration assessment, and evaluation of clinical utility are required before implementation in routine clinical practice.