Integrated geospatial evaluation of land suitability for rice cultivation based on climatic and biophysical factors in Fogera District Ethiopia

Abstract

Land suitability evaluation is essential for promoting sustainable agricultural development and optimizing land resource utilization, particularly in countries like Ethiopia where agriculture dominates the national economy. This study applies an integrated geospatial land suitability approach that combines climatic, soil, topographic, and land-use characteristics to evaluate rice production potential under the prevailing agro-ecological conditions of Fogera District. The novelty is threefold: First, it develops a climate-informed suitability framework using long-term climatic records (1995–2024), moving beyond static biophysical assessments to account for interannual climate variability and support climate-resilient planning. Second, it integrates GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation with the Analytic Hierarchy Process to objectively derive criterion weights through pairwise comparisons, ensuring methodological transparency and eliminating subjective bias. Third, it provides rigorous statistical validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis with 360 ground reference points, achieving an Area Under the Curve value of 0.875, establishing a new benchmark for predictive reliability in Ethiopian agricultural suitability studies.Eight key factors—rainfall, temperature, slope, LULC, soil type, soil texture, soil depth, and soil pH—were evaluated using spatial datasets from satellite imagery, digital elevation models, soil databases, and long-term climatic records. Weighted overlay analysis in ArcGIS Pro generated the final suitability map. Results indicate that 728.5 km2 (65.9%) of the study area is highly suitable, 235.9 km2 (21.4%) moderately suitable, 57.4 km2 (5.2%) marginally suitable, and 82.7 km2 (7.5%) unsuitable for rice cultivation. Model validation using 360 reference points achieved an AUC of 0.875, confirming very good predictive performance and strong agreement between predicted and observed conditions. The findings demonstrate that Fogera District has substantial potential for climate-resilient rice production. This study provides a robust, spatially explicit decision-support framework for sustainable land use planning, agricultural intensification, and food security enhancement. The integrated approach—combining climate-informed multi-decadal analysis, AHP-derived objective weighting, and ROC/AUC validation—is replicable in similar agro-ecological settings to support evidence-based agricultural policy and climate adaptation strategies.