Designing for Resilience: An Integrated Engineering Framework for Irrigation Infrastructure in Climate Vulnerable Himalayan Basins

Integrating climate projections and hydrological modeling for sustainable water management in a major indian peninsular basin

Agriculture and fisheries play vital roles in sustaining livelihoods, whereas they are frequently suffered by recurring floods in the Wainganga basin of the Indian Peninsula. The climate change and unsustainable practices have significantly affected these livelihoods. The present study examines changing climate impacts on hydrological mechanisms in the Wainganga basin, precisely Kumhari, Ramakona, and Ashti using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Before applying the SWAT model, it was calibrated (1996–2008) and validated (2009–2013) with warm-up period of 3 years (i.e., from 1993 to 1995) using observed data, projecting future streamflow with NEX-GDDP RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The outcomes reveal complex dynamic scenarios. It is projected that precipitation (3%–9%), surface runoff (23%–31%), and lateral flow (18%–29%) will increase in future, however, both evapotranspiration (ET) (16%–17%) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) (17%–18%) are expected to decline in compare to baseline period. This hydrological shift alters the localized water equilibrium and is modulated primarily by changes in relative humidity and wind velocity, while temperature and precipitation show upward trends. The findings of the present study contribute to the understanding of future water availability and management strategies in the face of climate variability and change.

Analyzing Water Demand and Supply Under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios Using WEAP: a Case Study of Kabul River Basin, Pakistan

Simulation of the Keureuto Dam collapse disaster based on flood distribution

Dams play a vital role in supporting agricultural productivity, water supply and flood control in Indonesia. However, their structural failure poses serious threats to human safety and regional development. This study integrates hydrological and hydraulic modelling as part of a comprehensive disaster risk mitigation strategy, focusing on the Keureuto Dam in North Aceh, Indonesia. The dam, a 74-m-high earthfill structure with a total storage capacity of 215.94 million m3, presents significant downstream flood risk in the event of structural collapse disaster risk mitigation. Using the HEC-RAS 5.0.7 model, a dam breach scenario was simulated under overtopping conditions based on Froehlich’s empirical equations. The simulation results revealed a maximum flood depth of 19.577 m, a peak flow velocity of 1.387 m/s and an inundation area of approximately 49.91 km2 affecting 84 villages across four sub-districts. Contribution: Beyond quantifying flood characteristics, this study emphasises a decision-support tool for disaster preparedness, enabling hazard mapping, evacuation planning and the development of early warning systems.

Hydrological Simulation Analysis for The Design of The Sei Busui Batuaji-Kuaro Bridge in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

The Sei Busui Batuaji-Kuaro Bridge in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, is a critical infrastructure project requiring rigorous hydrological analysis to ensure resilience against extreme flood events. This study presents a comprehensive hydrological simulation to determine design flood discharges and maximum water levels (MWL) using rainfall data from 2016–2025. Rainfall frequency analysis employed the Log Pearson Type III distribution, validated with Chi-square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov tests. Flood discharges were estimated using five methods: Rational, Weduwen, Haspers, HSS-Gamma I, and HSS-Nakayasu. The HSS-Gamma I method was selected for its applicability to medium-sized catchments (127.58 km²), yielding a design discharge of 1,623.15 m³/s for a 75-year return period. Hydraulic analysis confirmed a freeboard of 1.693 m, exceeding safety standards. The findings emphasize the importance of region-specific hydrological methods and continuous monitoring to mitigate flood risks

A Multi-Method Hydroclimatic Modeling Framework for the Sustainable Management of Floodplain Aquifer Dynamics in the Lower Atrai Basin

Groundwater depletion poses a structural threat to agricultural sustainability and freshwater ecosystem integrity across the margins of the vulnerable Lower Atrai Basin in Bangladesh. This study presents a rigorous assessment of long-term hydroclimatic trajectories and their direct coupling with aquifer dynamics in Singra Upazila, Natore district. Utilizing monthly data for rainfall, mean temperature, total evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater depth, the study deployed a statistical framework combining parametric multiple linear regression (MLR) with a robust non-parametric trend consisting of standard Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope Estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). SPSS diagnostic checks revealed a powerful lag-1 serial correlation, confirming structural hydrological memory within the local aquifer matrix. Parametric sensitivity modeling demonstrated that consolidated climate variables (rainfall, temperature, and ET) account for a restricted portion of the total water table variance (R2 = 0.367), indicating that non-climatic, anthropogenic abstractions principally override natural climate signals during the intensive dry-season Boro rice irrigation. Non-parametric evaluations further exposed severe asymmetries in water table behavior. Annual rainfall exhibited a monotonic decline (β = -10.78 mm/year), whereas mean annual temperatures showed a significant warming trend (+0.018°C/year). Consequently, both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon groundwater depths demonstrated progressive, systematic drawdown trends. Quantile evaluations via ITA confirmed that groundwater depletion is accelerating most severely during peak dry-season extraction stages (Sita =+0.077 m/year). These findings emphasize that Singra's deepening groundwater crisis is structurally driven by human abstraction rather than meteorological deficits, highlighting an urgent need for an immediate transition toward surface water conservation, optimized crop rotation, and managed aquifer recharge policies.

Climate Change and Water Security in Semi-Arid Regions: Integrating Surface and Groundwater Responses

Climate change poses significant threats to water resource sustainability and security, necessitating robust evaluation models to quantify the risks. Robust frameworks for assessing climate change impacts on coupled surface and groundwater systems remain limited, particularly in data-scarce, semi-arid regions. This study introduces an integrated climate–hydrological assessment framework that combines process-based modelling with multi-dimensional drought diagnostics. The framework integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with CMIP6 climate projections (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and a suite of novel and traditional drought indices, including the newly developed Standardized Groundwater Recharge Index (SGRI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). The utility of the framework is demonstrated through a case study in the Damghanroud watershed, central Iran, for the period 2031–2059. Results reveal a projected 59–68% decline in wet-season precipitation, 33–46% reduction in surface runoff, and 36–45% increase in evapotranspiration. Groundwater recharge is projected to decrease by 8.8–9.5%, indicating significant aquifer stress. The RDI captures a marked increase in drought intensity and frequency, especially toward the end of the simulation period. By integrating hydrological modelling with advanced drought diagnostics, this framework offers a transferable approach for diagnosing climate-induced water stress across diverse hydroclimatic settings. The combined use of SGRI and RDI enhances early warning capabilities and supports more informed, adaptive water management strategies. This methodological advancement contributes to global efforts in building climate resilience in vulnerable water systems.