Driving Development: Coalitions, Policies, and Upgrading Brazilian Automotive Technology (1988–2025)

Abstract

Among industrial activities in Brazil, the automotive sector generates some of the most significant and multifaceted multiplier effects on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The sector integrates activities ranging from raw materials to high-tech services, incorporating advanced technologies that influence innovation and positioning in global value chains (GVCs). Remarkably, this industry has been structured over time by public policies that have decisively shaped incentives for its participants. The world’s largest automotive multinationals have been attracted to operate in the country through varied institutional arrangements involving domestic capital and incentives across federative units. This dissertation analyzes how variations in institutional arrangements across time, space, and firms affect the transfer, incorporation, and local spillovers of technologies from multinationals, alongside other development indicators. It also examines how these arrangements shape the linkages and enhanced participation of Brazilian organizations in GVCs, as well as the densification of networks and actions conducive to innovation and socio-environmental sustainability. The temporal scope of the study covers the period under the normative framework of the 1988 Constitution, using the main federal policies for the sector as successive time markers: 1992 (Automotive Sectoral Chamber), 1995 (New Brazilian Automotive Regime), 2013 (Inovar-Auto), 2018 (Rota 2030), and 2024 (Mover). These policies are analyzed in conjunction with the political dynamics and coalition formations of administrations since 1990 — namely, Fernando Collor (1990–1992), Itamar Franco (1992–1994), Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995–2002), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2010), Dilma Rousseff (2011–2016), Michel Temer (2016–2018), Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022), and again Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2023–2026). To investigate the impact of coalition shifts, as mediated by accompanying policy variations, on upgrading trajectories, the administrations are categorized into three types: disembedded neoliberalism (1990–1992 and 2016–2022), embedded neoliberalism (1992–2002), and neo-developmentalism (2003– 2016 and 2023–2026). This dissertation formulates and tests the argument that variations in political coalitions shape upgrading trajectories — understood in terms of the relative distance from the global technological frontier — through differences in government policy, demonstrating that periods characterized by cross-class coalitions have delivered more substantial upgrading outcomes than periods marked by elite accommodation.