Greenland surface air temperature changes since 1950, influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Abstract

Surface air temperature (SAT) is a key determinant of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet, but its regional disparities, decadal drivers, and seasonally modulated responses remain elusive. Leveraging a novel high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) station-based reconstruction of SAT over Greenland, this study investigates the SAT variability from 1950 to 2024 and its relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find that annual mean surface temperature decreased significantly from 1950 to the mid-1990s, after which it shifted to a rapid warming, with strong interdecadal variability in all seasons. Spatially, warming has been stronger in northern Greenland than in southern Greenland, and the ablation zone exhibits significant year-round warming. The AMO is the primary driver of decadal‐scale temperature variability, especially in summer, while the PDO modulates this influence most effectively in autumn. Since the late 1990s, the concurrence of a positive AMO and a negative PDO has jointly enhanced anticyclonic conditions over Greenland, driving sustained warming. These findings significantly improve the predictability of Greenland’s SAT, thereby supporting more accurate projections of the future SMB of the ice sheet.