Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Factors in Xinjiang Under Land-Use Change Trends

Abstract

Understanding vegetation dynamics and their driving mechanisms in arid regions is essential for assessing ecosystem resilience under global change. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation greenness in Xinjiang, China, from 1985 to 2018, with a focus on land-use change and climatic influences. We used long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data combined with climate variables and high-resolution land-use data. Trend analysis, residual analysis, breakpoint detection, and random forest sensitivity analysis were applied to examine vegetation dynamics and their potential driving factors. The results show that Xinjiang experienced a significant greening trend, with a pronounced turning point around 2000, coinciding with the implementation of large-scale ecological restoration projects. During 1985–1999, vegetation changes were closely related to temperature, particularly in mountain regions, while the positive effect of precipitation became more evident after 2000 due to increased vegetation cover and evapotranspiration demand. Land-use transformations, especially barren land to grassland, grassland to cropland, and grassland to forest, were strongly associated with vegetation greening. The baseline residual analysis indicated that a large proportion of vegetation greening after 2000 could not be fully explained by temperature and precipitation alone. Random forest sensitivity analysis further identified human footprint and temperature as important predictors of NDVI trends. These results suggest that human-related land-use and management activities, together with climatic factors, likely played important roles in shaping vegetation recovery in Xinjiang. Breakpoint analysis showed that many vegetation shifts occurred between 1999 and 2003, particularly in regions where ecological restoration projects were concentrated. Overall, our findings indicate that vegetation recovery in Xinjiang was jointly influenced by human-related activities and climate conditions, while this improvement remains constrained by water availability. These insights provide a scientific basis for optimizing ecological restoration strategies in arid and semi-arid regions.