Assessing Wildfire Hazard for Powerline Expansion Under the Changing Climates in Alberta, Canada

Abstract

Escaped powerline‐caused fires (EPFs) are increasing in fire‐prone regions, including Alberta, Canada, underscoring growing tensions between expanding powerlines and managing wildfire risk. As fire‐conducive weather becomes more frequent, it remains unclear how future infrastructure can be planned to minimize wildfire risk. Here, we developed predictive models using routinely monitored environmental variables and projected future conditions conducive to EPFs for 2041–2100 using CMIP6‐derived fire weather projections for Alberta. We then identified low‐fire hazard areas for powerline expansion based on the patterns of EPF probability. We found that EPF days become more frequent and persist longer under compound hot, dry, and windy conditions, increasing by 8–15 days per year by late century relative to 1991–2020. More than 30% of the landscape remains consistently unsuitable for powerline expansion because of high EPF probability, whereas very low‐fire hazard areas are limited and account for less than 16% of the study area.