The spatial anatomy of urban wildfire vulnerability: a spatially validated GeoAI framework reveals the roles of building density and vegetation moisture in structure loss during the 2025 Palisades Fire
Abstract
Urban wildfire resilience depends on interactions among built form, vegetation condition, and extreme fire weather, yet city-scale risk models often overlook whether predictive skill transfers across neighborhoods. We developed a spatially validated GeoAI workflow for the January 2025 Palisades Fire, linking 12,081 CAL FIRE damage inspections to pre-fire Sentinel-2 vegetation indices, Landsat surface temperature, LANDFIRE fuels, terrain, and OpenStreetMap buildings and roads. Among 9,883 inspected residential structures, 5,566 were destroyed. Random cross-validation yielded ROC-AUC 0.92 for the integrated XGBoost model, but 1 km spatial block validation reduced performance to 0.75; logistic regression performed similarly and was better calibrated. Building count within 100 m was the strongest predictor, with destruction odds increasing 4.12-fold per standard deviation. Vegetation moisture and greenness showed opposing conditional associations: NDMI at 100-300 m was protective (OR 0.52), whereas NDVI at 30-100 m was positively associated with destruction after accounting for moisture (OR 1.74). Predictive information was concentrated at the 100-300 m neighborhood scale. A separate post-fire track mapped burn severity and vegetation recovery without leakage. The results support neighborhood-scale susceptibility screening, moisture-aware vegetation management, and spatial block validation as a minimum standard for single-event urban wildfire modeling.