Managing hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity in the Duvernay shale: Triggering mechanisms, influencing factors, and practice-oriented mitigation strategies

Abstract

This review provides a Duvernay-focused synthesis of hydraulic fracturing (HF)-induced seismicity, integrating geological datasets, case studies of significant events, coupled poroelastic simulations, and machine-learning-based factor ranking. While the three underlying triggering mechanisms—pore pressure increase, poroelastic stress perturbation, and aseismic slip—are well established, their relative contributions and quantitative thresholds have not been systematically constrained for the Duvernay. It is worth noting that: (1) aseismic slip is a frequent precursor to moderate-sized events in this basin; (2) poroelastic stress changes often dominate over direct pore pressure diffusion at distances > 1 km from the injection well; and (3) using a normalized seismic moment release per unit injected volume, the induced-seismicity potential correlates most strongly with distance to the Precambrian basement (< 250 m) and formation overpressure (> 15 kPa m⁻1). A comparative analysis reveals that Duvernay events occur predominantly within sedimentary cover, are spatially linked to Devonian reef margins, and exhibit lower maximum magnitudes for a given injected volume. To bridge the gap between academic modeling and industrial practice, we propose a tiered mitigation framework: (1) pre-drill geological screening using high-resolution fault and basement mapping; (2) operational constraints (e.g., limiting single-stage injection volume to < 15,000 m3 in high-risk zones); (3) a predictive traffic-light system that integrates real-time Coulomb stress calculations; and (4) field-ready decision tools (nomograms, risk scoring cards). These findings underscore that proactive, data-driven, regionally tailored risk management is essential for sustainable unconventional resource development in seismically susceptible basins like the Duvernay.