Revisiting Ecological Footprint Dynamics in the BRICS ‐10 Economies: The Roles of Geopolitical Risk, Financial Development, and Economic Freedom

Abstract

This study examines the associations among geopolitical risk, financial development, economic freedom, foreign direct investment, urbanization, and ecological footprint in a BRICS‐10 sample comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2000–2024. Guided by a STIRPAT‐informed framework, it uses ecological footprint as a broad indicator of environmental pressure to assess how geopolitical, financial, institutional, external, and structural factors are associated with ecological outcomes in a heterogeneous emerging‐economy setting. Empirically, the analysis applies the cross‐sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS‐ARDL) model to estimate short‐run and long‐run associations while accounting for cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity, and it employs augmented mean group (AMG) and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimators as robustness checks. The results show that geopolitical risk, foreign direct investment, and urbanization are positively associated with ecological footprint, whereas financial development and economic freedom are negatively associated with it. Overall, the findings suggest that ecological pressure in the BRICS‐10 economies is linked not only to external instability and urban expansion but also to the ways in which finance, institutions, and investment conditions shape production and resource use.