Jul 2026· International Journal of Environment and Climate Change· Vol 16, pp. 493-506· 0 citations
Abstract
Rising global temperatures have altered the frequency, intensity and spatial distribution of extreme weather events, with direct and measurable consequences for agricultural productivity worldwide. This review synthesises evidence on how heatwaves, drought, flooding, tropical cyclones and their compound or sequential combinations affect the yield of major cereal and grain legume crops, with particular attention to wheat, maize, rice and soybean. Physiological mechanisms underlying yield loss are examined alongside field- and satellite-derived evidence of production shortfalls, and the modulating role of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is considered. The review further evaluates adaptation strategies, including climate-smart agriculture, breeding for abiotic stress tolerance and agronomic management, and identifies the growing recognition that compound extremes, rather than single hazards, now pose the greatest threat to global food security. Evidence indicates that yield penalties associated with extreme heat, water deficit and excess soil moisture are often non-linear and interact with crop developmental stage, soil condition and regional climate. The review concludes that closing gaps in compound-event attribution, regionally disaggregated yield data and the integration of adaptation research across disciplines remains essential for safeguarding future food production under a changing climate.
Climate change poses increasing risks to global agricultural productivity, making understanding of its effects on crop production essential. This study analyses how rising temperatures and accumulating atmospheric CO2 reshape the productive dynamics of wheat, rice, corn, oats, barley, potato, sugar cane, and sunflower production during 2000–2023 using Vector Autoregression, Granger causality, impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition, and threshold regression. Granger causality analysis identified a statistically significant predictive relationship between temperature and wheat production, whereas no statistically significant predictive effects were detected for rice, corn, oats, barley, potato, sugar cane, or sunflower production. Impulse response functions showed differentiated crop responses, with corn exhibiting temporary positive adjustments, rice predominantly negative responses, and wheat delayed structural shifts following temperature shocks. Forecast error variance decomposition further revealed substantial differences in climate sensitivity across crops, indicating that sunflower and sugar cane production were largely driven by their own dynamics, whereas rice, corn, potato, oats, and barley were comparatively more influenced by external climatic and economic shocks. Threshold regression identified crop-specific non-linear responses for six crops, whereas oats and barley did not reject the null hypothesis of linearity once critical atmospheric CO2 concentrations were exceeded, confirming that the relationship between temperature and agricultural production changes across climatic regimes. These findings emphasise that climate change does not affect all crops uniformly and support the adoption of crop-specific adaptation strategies, including climate-responsive cultivation practices, targeted irrigation, drought-resistant varieties, and sustainable land management. The study provides evidence-based insights to support climate adaptation policies and strengthen the resilience of global agricultural production systems.
O. Lobonţ, Cristina Criste, Iuliana Militaru et al.· Agriculture· 0 citations
Global surface temperatures have risen significantly over the past several decades, leading to an increased frequency of extreme heat events that threaten global food security and crop physiological stability. While macroclimatic data provide broad environmental trends, the health and productivity of crops are more directly governed by the microclimate, especially environmental conditions including temperature, humidity, and radiation within the cropping systems. This review explores the importance of microclimate modification as a resilient approach to mitigate the combined impacts of elevated temperatures and biotic stressors. Higher temperatures directly impair critical reproductive processes, such as pollen viability and grain filling, while simultaneously accelerating the metabolic rates and reproductive cycles of insect pests and enhancing the virulence of various pathogens. We categorize microclimate management into two primary strategies: protected cultivation and vegetative modification. Protected structures, such as greenhouses and shade nets, offer high-precision control over thermal and moisture variables while providing physical barriers against pests. Nature based vegetative interventions, including intercropping, agroforestry, and shelterbelts, utilize shading and transpiration cooling to buffer thermal extremes and enhance biodiversity. By modulating canopy temperature, humidity, and airflow, these modifications reduce the risk of pest proliferation and disease outbreaks while optimizing water-use efficiency. Integrating microclimate management with resistant crop varieties and sustainable pest control is essential for developing resilient agricultural systems capable of sustaining productivity in an increasingly unpredictable or extreme climate.
P. R, S. V, N. Sathyamoorthy et al.· Genetics and Molecular Resea...· 0 citations
Rising global temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide are altering the geographic ranges, phenology, and population dynamics of insect pests that damage the world's major food crops. This review synthesises evidence on the physiological mechanisms, observed range shifts, and projected redistribution of agriculturally important insect species under contemporary and future climate scenarios. Poleward and altitudinal expansions have already been documented across multiple pest taxa, with average latitudinal displacement rates in the low single-digit kilometres per year, and modelling studies project further acceleration under mid- and high-emission trajectories. Case evidence from fall armyworm, cotton leafworm, maize stemborers, and several rice pests illustrates how thermal tolerance, developmental plasticity, and host-plant availability jointly determine the pace and direction of range change. Elevated carbon dioxide modifies host-plant nutritional and defensive chemistry in ways that can either suppress or, in some circumstances, enhance herbivore performance, complicating simple temperature-based forecasts. Economic assessments indicate that warming-driven increases in insect-mediated crop losses could reach double-digit percentage increases per degree Celsius for staple cereals, disproportionately affecting temperate breadbasket regions, while invasive insects already impose costs exceeding tens of billions of US dollars annually worldwide. Species distribution modelling, mechanistic niche models, and hybrid approaches are increasingly used to anticipate these shifts, though model uncertainty, incomplete occurrence data, and neglect of biotic interactions remain persistent limitations. The review closes by identifying priority research directions, drawing overall conclusions for policy and practice, and acknowledging the methodological limitations inherent to a narrative synthesis of a rapidly evolving evidence base.
Omprakash Tetarwal, Rajendra Ghanswa, Nemichand Chopra et al.· Journal of global agricultur...· 0 citations
In this paper, we investigate the impacts of weather shocks on crop yields in Mexico using a comprehensive data set of five major crops and weather information at the municipality level for the most recent years, 2003−2021. One of our main aims is to show that the adverse effects of weather shocks on yields are not specific to a few crops but applies to all crops exposed to similar weather conditions. Previous literature has limited the analysis to one or two crops, whereas we cover multiple crops, three growing seasons, and two watering technologies. Following the production function approach, we estimate panel data fixed effect models for each crop and find strong evidence on the adverse impact of exposure to extreme heat, the nonlinear effect of precipitation, and the positive impact of irrigation technology. Our main results show that cumulative heat exposure has nonlinear effects on crop yields, with evidence of diminishing returns and eventual damage for crops such as coffee, corn, and wheat. By contrast, for sugarcane, the estimated relationship is weaker and, in one specification, suggests a positive nonlinear pattern.
H. Núñez, L. Chakraborti, Jesús E. Robles‐Chávez· Agribusiness· 0 citations
Climate change is increasingly reshaping agricultural systems across Central Europe through rising temperatures, altered precipitation regimes, droughts, heatwaves, and expanding biological risks. These pressures threaten the stability of conventional cropping systems while simultaneously affecting food safety, storage systems, processing infrastructure, and regional food security. This review explores the role of adaptive crop diversification as a key strategy for enhancing agricultural resilience in the face of future climate uncertainty. Drawing on IPCC AR6 scenarios, CMIP6 simulations, and EURO-CORDEX projections, we analyze major climatic stressors affecting Central European agriculture, including heat stress, hydrological instability, soil degradation, invasive pests, fungal pathogens, and mycotoxin contamination. Particular attention is given to shifts in crop suitability and the growing relevance of climate-resilient crops such as sorghum, millet, quinoa, chickpea, lentil, soybean, camelina, hemp, and miscanthus. Beyond field-level adaptation, the review highlights the critical role of post-harvest systems, storage infrastructure, processing adaptability, and food safety within climate-resilient food systems. We additionally evaluate socioeconomic barriers, policy frameworks, and emerging technological approaches, including digital agriculture and artificial intelligence. A central contribution of this review is the integration of crop diversification, food safety, post-harvest adaptation, and governance challenges within a unified climate-resilience framework for Central European agriculture. We conclude that long-term agricultural resilience in the region will require a systemic transformation that integrates ecological, technological, economic, institutional, and social dimensions of adaptation.
Dávid Tőzsér, Daniela Isabel Gutiérrez Pérez, R. Karmakar et al.· Agriculture· 0 citations
Climate change poses significant threats to European agricultural production, with increasing frequency and severity of adverse weather events impacting crop yields. Agroforestry, the integration of woody elements into agricultural systems, is recognized as a vital agroecological approach for both climate change mitigation and adaptation, yet key mechanistic and long-term performance questions remain unresolved. This study utilized the mechanistic Hi-sAFe model to simulate 100 years (2001–2100) of silvoarable agroforestry performance at Wakelyns farm in southeastern England, focusing on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and pea (Pisum sativum) yields under intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) and very high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emissions scenarios. The research assessed yield stability, underlying microclimatic and phenological mechanisms, and long-term land-use efficiency (land equivalent ratio). This study demonstrates for the first time that agroforestry functions as a climate shock absorber by protecting crops during a critical early-season phenological window, preventing catastrophic yield failures under climate change scenarios. These protective effects were mechanistically linked to microclimatic modification, likely shade, provided by newly emerged walnut (Juglans regia) leaves during the early stages of crop flowering and grain filling, rather than during peak summer heat. While overall yield stability assessed statistically was not significantly enhanced, the mitigation of extreme downside risk represents a profound benefit for farm resilience. Analysis of land equivalent ratio revealed a substantial initial productivity lag, with consistent land equivalent ratio > 1 achieved only after 80 years for wheat and 40 years for pea, highlighting economic adoption barriers but also the potential for optimized system design and adaptive management to accelerate productivity gains. Overall, these results identify a previously unreported mechanistic and temporal basis for agroforestry’s capacity to buffer temperate arable crops against climate-induced yield shocks.
Colin R. Tosh, Christian Gossell, I. Lecomte et al.· Agronomy for Sustainable Dev...· 0 citations
