Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Factor Driving Mechanism of Land Subsidence in Shanghai Hongqiao Transport Hub Core Area Based on SBAS-InSAR (2015–2024)

Abstract

Land subsidence in soft-soil urban transport hubs arises from the complex coupling of natural geology and intensive anthropogenic activities, yet its spatial differentiation mechanisms and seasonal drivers remain poorly understood in high-development core areas. This study develops a progressive analytical framework integrating Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR), GeoDetector, Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate spatiotemporal deformation patterns and driving mechanisms in the Shanghai Hongqiao Transport Hub Core Area from 2015 to 2024 using 209 Sentinel-1A images. Validation against official subsidence contours yields a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.697 (p < 0.001) and an RMSE of 4.23 mm, confirming good spatial pattern agreement. Urban functional zones and construction stages are identified as the dominant influencing factors, with their interaction exhibiting notable bi-factor enhancement. Six distinct deformation response types are delineated via GMM, and two opposing seasonal signals are distinguished: near-instantaneous precipitation-driven surface loading on shallow soft soil and temperature-driven thermoelastic expansion of built structures. These findings may inform differentiated subsidence management and offer a transferable workflow for analogous soft-soil urban areas.