Yield Gaps in Major Crops of India: A Review of Drivers and Sustainable Intensification Pathways

Advancing Climate-Smart Agriculture: A Global Assessment of Climate Impacts on Crop Yield and Adaptation Effectiveness Across Arid and Semi-Arid Regions

Climate change is intensifying crop yield variability across arid and semi-arid regions, yet the effectiveness of widely implemented adaptation strategies remains insufficiently quantified. We systematically reviewed 157 crop modeling studies over two decades (2005–2024) to assess yield responses and adaptation effectiveness for five crops (maize, wheat, rice, sorghum, and barley). Using a predefined set of inclusion criteria across six databases (ProQuest, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, Taylor & Francis Online, and JSTOR) in an independent dual review, the results show that rising temperatures and erratic precipitation substantially reduced maize yields by 20.32% (range = 0.4–63%) and wheat yield by 15% (range = 0.05–64%), followed by rice (14.72%, range = 4–37%) and sorghum (14.54%, range = 1–36%). Localized adaptation partially offset approximately 12–19% of climate-driven reductions. An “adaptation effectiveness gap,” representing the difference between local adaptation benefits and global mean potential, showed that most locations achieved 7% greater than global benchmarks for comparable strategies. East and South Asia, as well as Eastern Africa, underperformed, whereas Europe and North America exceeded the global average. Disparities emanated from data limitations, methodology, and local agronomic conditions. This review offers a transferable framework for guiding effective, region-specific climate adaptation planning.

Future changes in climate suitability, yields, and calorie optimization of four global staple food crops.

Achieving "zero hunger," the second sustainable development goal, is challenging due to climate change, weather and climate extremes, and unabated human population growth. Understanding likely changes in spatial crop suitability and yield for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean using the FAO-Ecocrop and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models is imperative for sustainable agri-food systems. Our results reveal a northward shift in climate suitability as the optimal and suitable regions decrease and the unsuitable and marginal areas expand more profoundly in the far future (2061-2100) than in the near future (2021-2060) relative to the 1970-2000 baseline for all crops under all considered emission scenarios. Heterogeneous yield changes are observed in most parts of the globe, though with consistent regional outcomes. Across all emission scenarios, projections for all four staple food crops show spatially consistent declines in climate suitability and yield within major tropical producing zones, contrasted by yield gains in extratropical regions. Currently, rice can potentially be optimized in over 40% of the agricultural land, followed by wheat (30%), maize (25%), and soybeans under the integrated food systems. Future climate is anticipated to heterogeneously alter these land fractions by ~12%, ~8%, and ~13% in maize, rice, and wheat by the end of 21st century, consequently affecting the global food trade and food security. To reduce crop yield uncertainties, climate-smart agricultural interventions, improved agronomic practices, and the optimization of technological advancements are paramount in the global south. Improvement in climate models' parameterization schemes and integration of multi-crop modelling approaches is imperative in designing food policies that bolster global food security.

Closing irrigation-limited maize yield gaps in China under climate change

Climate change poses increasingly severe challenges to crop production, yet the status and future trajectory of the irrigation-limited yield gap (IYG) remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively assessed the spatial-temporal patterns and future responses of IYG using a bottom-up framework. We categorized the IYG into closed and unclosed components based on the yield at current limited irrigation levels (Ycir). Our results showed the IYG remains 32% unclosed, accounting for approximately one-tenth (about 26 million tons) of China’s total maize production. Regionally, pronounced disparities in yield sensitivity to irrigation were observed, with the Northwest exhibiting the highest and the Southwest the lowest. Both historical and future simulations revealed a significant declining trend in Ycir and IYG across most northern provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Xinjiang). Increasing irrigation levels can offset most of these declines without diminishing marginal benefits. In the Northwest, more than 70% of the projected yield changes are identified as a mitigatable decrease, equivalent to 18% of historical yields. Conversely, the Northeast has nearly reached a climate-limited yield plateau with decreasing marginal benefits. Roughly 20% of the yield change in the North China Plain and Northeast is non-mitigatable. These findings inform region-specific irrigation strategies to sustain maize production in China.

From Potato Seed Stronghold to Declining Productivity: Drivers of Two Decades of Production Change in Ethiopia’s Degem District

Modeling the impacts of climate change on the productivity and water demand of annual crops in south-central Chile

Grain Expansion in China's Drylands Secures Food but Intensifies Environmental Trade‐Offs

Drylands are increasingly crucial for global food supply, and grain cultivation there continues to expand. Newly cultivated croplands in these regions are often assumed to be biophysically marginal and low yielding. However, the food‐security benefits, environmental costs, and associated trade‐offs of this expansion remain insufficiently quantified. Here, we assessed maize, wheat, and rice expansion across China's drylands (2000–2019) by harmonizing 1‐km crop maps, estimating grid‐scale expected yields (under typical local production conditions) with machine‐learning models, and coupling these estimates with a process‐based crop water‐demand model and gridded fertilizer and pesticide data sets. Results show that drylands accounted for a significantly increasing national share of all three crops, driven primarily by maize and rice expansion. Crop expansion areas exhibited competitive expected yields, with ∼60% exceeding stable‐area benchmarks. However, this competitive performance was accompanied by higher input burdens. Relative to stable croplands, median fertilizer inputs increased by 11.1%–18.1%, pesticide inputs by 3.2%–15.5%, and blue‐water demand by 3.2%–11.7%, while their use efficiencies declined for most crops. Overall, 89.4% of crop expansion areas exhibited at least one high‐input indicator, with 58.1% facing double or triple burdens. These findings highlight spatially heterogeneous yield‐input trade‐offs, suggesting that yields in these expansion areas are maintained largely through elevated inputs. Such input‐dependent yields can trigger a self‐reinforcing “high‐yield trap,” where competitive yields incentivize further expansion and intensification in water‐limited regions. Future dryland agriculture must therefore move beyond aggregate production growth toward differentiated zoning centered on yield benefits, input efficiency, and resource sustainability.