Harvested Area as Main Determinant of Ngawi Rice Production
Abstract
General Background Rice is a strategic commodity for food security, and agricultural production depends on the combination of land, labor, and capital resources. Specific Background Ngawi Regency experienced declining rice production from 2020 to 2024 alongside land conversion, an aging farmer population, limited technological capability, and uneven agricultural machinery use. Knowledge Gap Existing evidence indicates that harvested area is closely associated with production, while farmer numbers and machinery may contribute weakly when labor productivity and technology utilization are suboptimal, requiring localized assessment in Ngawi. Aims This study examines harvested area, number of farmers, and agricultural machinery in relation to rice production in Ngawi Regency using annual secondary time-series data from 2010–2024 obtained from Statistics Indonesia and the local Food Security and Agriculture Department. Multiple linear regression was conducted using SPSS. Results Harvested area was positive and significant (B = 7.736; p = 0.004), while farmer numbers were negative and nonsignificant (B = −0.371; p = 0.928) and agricultural machinery was positive but nonsignificant (B = 4.525; p = 0.614). Jointly, the three factors were significant (p < 0.001), and the model explained 73.1% of production variation. Novelty The study jointly evaluates land, agricultural labor, and machinery as production factors using a 15-year Ngawi time series. Implications Sustainable production requires optimized agricultural land management, stronger farmer capability through extension services, and more effective machinery utilization to support regional and national food stability. Highlights: Cultivated land recorded B = 7.736 and p = 0.004. Farmer count (p = 0.928) plus machinery (p = 0.614) remained individually nonsignificant. Three modeled factors jointly accounted for 73.1% of observed variance. Keywords: Harvested Area, Number of Farmers, Agricultural Machinery, Rice Production