Economic effects of the transformation and upgrading of energy-intensive industries in the context of carbon neutrality
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality governance and China's continued implementation of its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy, energy-intensive industries, including iron and steel, chemicals, building materials, and non-ferrous metals, are major sources of industrial carbon emissions. Their transformation and upgrading are closely linked to the achievement of emission reduction targets and have significant economic implications for macroeconomic performance, industrial restructuring, and the economic efficiency of individual enterprises. Based on industrial economics and green growth theory, this study reviews the current state of transformation in China's energy-intensive industries and analyzes the series of positive and negative economic effects arising from their transformation and upgrading. It identifies three transmission mechanisms: technological innovation, factor allocation, and industrial restructuring—and examines practical challenges emerging during the transformation process, including cost pressures, technological constraints, and imbalanced regional development. The findings show that, driven by carbon neutrality goals, the transformation of energy-intensive industries can improve green total factor productivity, enhance their position in the industrial value chain, and foster new green business models. In the short term, however, it may also lead to higher transformation costs for enterprises, a decline in some traditional jobs, and economic adjustment pressures in certain regions. Accordingly, this study proposes optimization strategies from four perspectives: differentiated industrial policies, green finance, the development of a technological innovation system, and coordinated regional development. The aim is to reconcile carbon reduction constraints with high-quality economic growth and provide theoretical guidance and practical approaches for the smooth transition of energy-intensive industries.