How Media Credibility Shapes Risk Perception during Public Health Emergency: A Comparative Study Model and Research Propositions

Abstract

Public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic are serious global concern and deserve urgent attention. Media, as one of the primary channels through which risk information reaches the public, has played a pivotal role in shaping how individuals perceive and respond to health threats, and scholars anticipate that the influence of media credibility on public risk perception is expanding, especially in the presence of widespread misinformation. Despite this alarming concern, less research attention has been paid to how media credibility interacts with belief in conspiracy theories to shape risk perception, particularly in non-Western, state-influenced media contexts. The present article aims to propose a conceptual model to depict the external and internal factors determining public risk perception during a health crisis. We propose a framework originated from the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) to delineate the role of traditional and social media credibility (i.e., the external informational factors as amplification stations) and belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories (i.e., the internal cognitive factor) in explaining public risk perception of COVID-19. By adopting SARF as a guide, this study develops a comparative conceptual model between China and Tanzania—two developing countries with contrasting pandemic communication strategies. The model posits that media credibility shapes belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories, which in turn attenuates risk perception. This article contributes to our understanding of risk communication in state-influenced media environments and suggests possible solutions to strengthen resilient health communication systems in society. Theoretical and practical implications are subsequently discussed in light of the conclusion.